The Dawn of Selective Altseason: Only a Few Projects Likely to Outperform Bitcoin

The upcoming altcoin season is expected to impact only a segment of the market, with only a few projects likely to outpace Bitcoin in terms of returns. This forecast is based on market saturation and decreasing correlation between assets, according to Timo Oinonen, an on-chain analyst at CryptoQuant.

Tron as an Altseason Indicator (via @cryptoquant_com)

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Tron (TRX) is a blockchain framework aiming to decentralize the internet by providing high-speed, scalable infrastructure. Established by Justin Sun in 2017, Tron facilitates smart contracts, decentralized applications (dApps), and DeFi solutions.… pic.twitter.com/vuaSO67GQa

The expert highlighted a divergence between Bitcoin’s price movement and that of TRX. Since March, TRX has exhibited better performance, while its correlation with Bitcoin is weakening. Historically, such shifts have signaled a flow of capital and the onset of an altcoin season.

However, the current cycle shows a different scenario. The market is oversaturated, with the number of tokens exceeding 43 million. This oversupply dilutes capital and hampers overall growth, even if Bitcoin’s dominance begins to decline.

The analyst predicts that investors will adopt a more selective approach. Instead of a broad market rally, growth will likely be displayed by individual «premium» altcoins with strong fundamentals. Oinonen emphasized that there is unlikely to be a widespread altcoin season akin to those seen in 2017 and 2021.

An analyst using the handle LordOfAlts stated that the altcoin season has not yet commenced, contrary to popular belief. He noted that none of the 30 key indicators signifying a bull market are currently activated.

Everyone is saying ALTSEASON has started but if you look at the indicators, they say ~ Not yet.

None of the 30 indicators for a bull market peak have been triggered.

• Bitcoin dominance stands at 61%

• Altcoin Season Index is at 51/100 (it needs to reach 75+)

• Puell,… pic.twitter.com/NU92VlpWZN

He pointed out several factors supporting his claim:

At the same time, the analyst observed a growing interest in Ethereum, noting a liquidity shift toward the second-largest cryptocurrency’s ecosystem. There is also an uptick in activity related to staking and layer-two solutions.

LordOfAlts believes the market is still in a very early phase and advised positioning oneself in anticipation of a rally that could provoke skepticism among many.

As of this writing, the Altcoin Season Index is at 48.

Over the past week, Bitcoin’s market dominance dropped from 63.76% to 60.78%, according to Glassnode.

#Bitcoin‘s dominance declined from 63.76% to 60.78% in the last week—a decline of 2.98 percentage points.
This marks one of the sharpest weekly drops this year as capital rotated into altcoins. pic.twitter.com/aPpZtZsTQ9

This 2.98% drop is one of the most pronounced this year, driven by a shift of capital from Bitcoin to altcoins.

However, a trader known as dman_AG believes that the price of the leading cryptocurrency will continue to rise.

Although dominance has fallen, BTC is still gaining ground. This indicates that new capital is entering the market and will eventually flow back into BTC.https://t.co/jZToUC45m6

In his view, this reflects an influx of new capital into the market, which will later return to the main crypto asset.

The analyst also observed the formation of a «bull flag» pattern on the chart, stating that the current scenario resembles the consolidation seen at the end of April. He estimates the target for this pattern to be around $140,000.

Trader Gaah highlighted the behavior of long-term holders of Bitcoin. He noted that the SOPR metric has reached a peak for 2025, indicating a greater degree of profit-taking.

Despite the price increase, he mentioned that the indicator remains far from levels historically associated with the peak of market cycles. This suggests that excitement and widespread selling have not yet commenced.

Historically, macro peaks have been signaled by SOPR levels above 4, while the current indicator value is around 2.5. The analyst believes this supports the notion of potential continuation in the asset’s price growth.

Such behavior suggests a bullish market, albeit not one nearing its end.

The trader cautioned investors to monitor trends while remaining mindful of the risks of significant corrections.

As a reminder, technical analyst Peter Brandt announced the beginning of the altcoin season.