Russias Ambitious Naval Gamble: The Ivan Rogov and the Fragile Future of the Black Sea Fleet

Russia is moving forward with the construction of its largest warship to date for the Black Sea Fleet—an amphibious assault vessel named Ivan Rogov—on the annexed Crimean Peninsula.

Analysts suggest that this ship may hold more symbolic value than practical military significance, as the fleet it aims to enhance has faced considerable losses during the invasion of Ukraine and cannot reliably operate from its traditional base in Sevastopol due to Ukrainian missile and drone attacks.

Recent satellite imagery shared by the Ukrainian defense outlet Defense Express indicates that construction of the Ivan Rogov has accelerated in recent months. A comparison of photographs from July 2024 to more recent ones suggests that Russia has significantly intensified the building efforts of this ship.

«When we examined the timeline, the ship’s hull was just beginning to take shape then, indicating substantial progress by the Russians in less than a year,» reported Defense Express.

The Ivan Rogov is one of two Project 23900 amphibious assault ships commissioned by the Kremlin to enhance the capabilities of the Russian Navy. The second ship, Mitrofan Moskalenko, is designated for the Pacific Fleet.

These vessels are engineered to transport up to 900 marines, 75 armored vehicles, three small landing crafts, and 15 helicopters, including Ka-29 transports and Ka-52K attack helicopters. With a displacement of 40,000 tons, their size significantly exceeds that of the Moskva, the fleet’s flagship missile cruiser that sank in April 2022 after being hit by Ukrainian Neptune missiles.

Until now, Russia has not operated ships of this class. Andriy Ryzhenko, a retired Captain 1st Rank and former deputy chief of staff of the Ukrainian Navy, noted that Russia’s current landing craft are relics from the Soviet era, tied to outdated military doctrines.

«The Soviet strategy from the 1970s and 80s was to have landing ships that carried marines and armored vehicles approach the shore under air cover and use their artillery and missile systems to strike before disembarking troops,» Ryzhenko explained to The Moscow Times.

Ryzhenko said that Russia’s military has since sought to adopt a more modern NATO-style approach, favoring amphibious assault ships that resemble small aircraft carriers. In this model, troops are deployed using helicopters or landing crafts while the main vessel stays farther offshore, safeguarded by escort ships.

Russia’s ambition to establish such capabilities began in 2010 with orders for two Mistral-class ships from France. Although the vessels were constructed, they were ultimately never delivered due to sanctions imposed after Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, leading to their sale to Egypt.

In light of this setback, Russia initiated its own project for amphibious assault ships. The Ivan Rogov and the Mitrofan Moskalenko were both laid down at the Zaliv shipyard in Kerch during a ceremony attended by President Vladimir Putin in July 2020, with the total contract amounting to approximately 100 billion rubles (about $1.2 billion).

However, the project has experienced numerous delays. In 2021, the pro-Kremlin news outlet Izvestia announced that the Ivan Rogov was expected to be completed by December 2028, while the Mitrofan Moskalenko would follow a year later. Subsequently, no further updates on the latter vessel have been provided.

Even if the Ivan Rogov is eventually finished, its strategic value is questionable, particularly in the Black Sea region, according to Ryzhenko. Turkey maintains a significant and modern naval fleet and controls access to the Mediterranean. At the same time, Ukraine has proven capable of targeting Russian warships in the area using naval drones and missiles.

Consequently, Ryzhenko asserts that the Ivan Rogov may only be effectively utilized against smaller nations such as Georgia.

«Although Russia might complete the Rogov, its safety in a real conflict is a major concern. It would require substantial protection, and even then, it’s uncertain if it could venture into open waters. At best, it might serve search-and-rescue operations,» he noted.

Ukraine’s innovative deployment of aerial and naval drones has already compelled Russia to shift much of its Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk—a port on Russia’s southern coast that offers more security but is strategically less favorable.

Three out of four bases of the Black Sea Fleet are situated in occupied Crimea—Sevastopol, Feodosia, and Donuzlav. According to Ryzhenko, the Crimean ports have an advantage over Novorossiysk, particularly in winter when they do not freeze.

Traditionally, Crimea’s bases have not only granted Russia regional dominance but also the capacity to project military power into the Mediterranean and even the Atlantic, he explained.

Established in 1783, the Black Sea Fleet has been Russia’s main naval force in the Black Sea and Mediterranean, primarily based in Sevastopol. After the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Russia negotiated a lease with Ukraine for military harbors in Sevastopol, leveraging Kyiv’s debts for Russian gas to secure this agreement.

Following the removal of Ukraine’s pro-Kremlin president during the Maidan Revolution in 2014, Moscow seized and annexed Crimea, partly to gain control over Sevastopol’s naval operations, fearing that Ukraine’s new leadership would refuse to prolong the lease.

At the onset of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Black Sea Fleet had 58 ships and 74 vessels, including patrol boats. Its strike capabilities included three frigates, seven submarines, and the flagship Moskva cruiser, all equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles.

A crucial component of the fleet consisted of large and small landing boats meant for launching amphibious assaults with military personnel and equipment.

Before the invasion, the Kremlin reinforced the fleet by transferring six additional landing ships from the Baltic Fleet to the Black Sea. Observers and experts at the time believed these vessels might be used to deploy troops in Ukraine, particularly near Odesa.

Once the invasion commenced, the fleet had three main objectives: to blockade Ukrainian ports, conduct missile strikes within Ukrainian territory, and execute amphibious landings near the Sea of Azov and Odesa.

While Russian ground forces swiftly secured the Azov coastline, Ukrainian defenses in Odesa, fortified with minefields and coastal artillery, thwarted attempts to land forces near the city after three unsuccessful efforts, Ryzhenko stated.

The fleet’s only successful amphibious operation was the capture of Zmiinyi Island, also known as Snake Island. Throughout much of the conflict, Russian naval vessels have predominantly been employed for missile strikes against Ukraine.

Russia has incurred substantial naval losses. In March 2022, Ukraine targeted the corvette Veliky Ustyug, and several patrol ships and military boats were later lost, including near Zmiinyi Island, which Russia subsequently abandoned. The Moskva was sunk by two Neptune missiles shortly thereafter.

By late 2022, Ukraine began utilizing naval drones against Russian vessels. In one notable instance, the frigate Admiral Makarov, which had taken over as flagship from the Moskva, reportedly sustained damage.

Consequently, the Kremlin started relocating its ships to Novorossiysk, where security still proved inadequate, as demonstrated by Ukrainian naval drones damaging the large landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak in August 2023.

Since then, Ukraine’s forces have expanded their arsenal, incorporating British and French-supplied Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles, resulting in the destruction of two dock landing ships, a small missile boat, a submarine, and the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.

According to the Ukrainian Navy, Russia has lost over a third of its warships in the Black Sea, with British intelligence estimating that around 25% of the fleet has either been destroyed or damaged.

However, the intensity and effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes have recently decreased as the Black Sea Fleet has enhanced its defenses against drones and reduced its operational tempo.

«[The Russians] constantly rotate their ships to avoid being targeted,» Ryzhenko noted. «They have bolstered the port’s defenses in Novorossiysk with aircraft, helicopters, drones, and patrol boats, while also limiting the number of ships at sea. I believe there are simply no vessels in areas where drones could effectively attack.»

As of now, according to Ryzhenko, Russia mainly has older frigates or smaller patrol boats stationed in Crimean waters.

At the Zaliv shipyard in Kerch, where the Ivan Rogov is being constructed, Russian forces have installed barriers to protect against Ukrainian naval drone strikes, as reported by the Telegram channel Krymsky Veter.

Some military analysts caution that, even if peace negotiations succeed, Russia might make future attempts to launch a full-scale assault on Ukraine in the coming years.

Nonetheless, Ryzhenko asserts that the Black Sea Fleet will continue to be highly vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes despite the addition of the Ivan Rogov.

«The Rogov has only limited-range air defenses,» he stated. «This might not suffice to shield the ship from Ukraine’s aerial and naval drones. We also possess Neptune and Harpoon anti-ship missiles, which can be deployed from F-16 and Mirage aircraft. In the event of concentrated attacks, the Rogov is likely to be destroyed if it approaches Ukraine’s shores.»