Kremlins Strategy: Undermining Zelensky to Secure a Favorable U.S. Deal

The Kremlin is increasingly focused on subordinating Ukraine by instigating a leadership change in the country, as Moscow’s military campaign struggles, according to five sources with insight into the situation and independent analysts speaking to The Moscow Times.

However, the more prolonged the peace negotiations over Ukraine last, the greater the risk for Russia to lose the favor of U.S. President Donald Trump and miss a critical opportunity for a broader agreement with Washington, sources noted.

On Sunday, Trump expressed to NBC News his deep discontent with President Vladimir Putin, criticizing him for undermining Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s credibility and calling for a change in leadership in Kyiv.

All sources from The Moscow Times requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the information.

Despite ongoing discussions between the U.S. and Russia regarding a potential peace agreement in Ukraine, and preparations for a summit between Putin and Trump, the Kremlin persists in pursuing its ambitious objectives in the conflict.

Officially, the Kremlin has outlined two potential scenarios to achieve its aims.

The first involves Ukraine’s surrender, resulting in a regime change and the reconfiguration of the Ukrainian state under Russian influence, effectively converting the nation into something akin to a Belarus-type satellite.

The second, less aggressive option, would see Russia solidify its control over the four regions it currently occupies while limiting Ukraine’s political and military autonomy.

Nevertheless, even this restricted strategy faces significant challenges, sources concurred. Russian troops have yet to establish complete control over the occupied areas, and Zelensky is unlikely to voluntarily relinquish any territory. Instead, he continues to seek military and political support from allies in Brussels, London, and Paris.

The Kremlin’s official narrative and propaganda remains consistent.

“A negotiation with Ukraine’s existing leadership cannot be labeled as dealing with a ‘Nazi regime,’ as engaging with that regime would be necessary,” stated a Russian diplomat.

According to two Russian diplomats and a source close to the Kremlin, Moscow is now pivoting to a third strategy: undermining Zelensky’s standing in Trump’s eyes, leading Washington to pressure Kyiv into conducting presidential elections.

The sources indicated that Russian officials have made progress in this initiative, referencing the Oval Office confrontation on February 28 as a demonstration of their success.

Asserting his position during a visit to the nuclear submarine Arkhangelsk in the Murmansk region last week, Putin maintained that “democratic elections” in Ukraine should only occur under temporary external oversight from the UN and the U.S., a remarkable proposal with very little historical precedent.

Russia’s nuclear submarine fleet plays a vital role in its strategic deterrence capabilities inherited from the Soviet era.

Putin’s visit to Murmansk marked his second notable military appearance in a week, intended as a message to Kyiv and Western capitals.

“We are intensifying our rhetoric to ensure our demands are heard and accepted by Kyiv,» a Russian diplomat shared with The Moscow Times.

The Kremlin is convinced that Zelensky stands a good chance of losing re-election and is determined to ensure this outcome, hoping that a new leader will be more amenable to negotiating with Moscow.

“Zelensky will not consent to any territorial concessions. We need to address the fundamental issue: Remove him,” asserted a source close to the Kremlin.

A senior Russian official familiar with Moscow’s foreign policy reiterated this stance, labeling Zelensky’s departure as a “successful and beneficial” outcome for Russia.

Ukraine has been unable to conduct elections due to the martial law enforced following Russia’s large-scale invasion.

In recent months, Putin has frequently claimed that Zelensky’s presidency lacks legitimacy, arguing that his term should have ended in May 2024.

While previously considering the Ukrainian parliamentary speaker a legitimate counterpart compared to Zelensky, he now regards the entirety of the Kyiv government as illegitimate.

For his part, Zelensky has stated he would resign if it meant Ukraine’s accession to NATO.

“‘Nachalnik’ [‘The Boss,’ a nickname for Putin among officials] harbors a personal animosity toward Zelensky because he dared to openly oppose him. One of our primary objectives is to ensure Zelensky is no longer in control of Ukraine. That’s why we are systematically promoting the narrative of his illegitimacy and the necessity for elections,” a Russian diplomat explained.

Moscow is also aiming to substantiate its stance to the U.S. As previously reported by The Moscow Times, the Russian Foreign Ministry has sought to place blame on Kyiv for infringing a proposed 30-day partial ceasefire.

In doing so, Moscow aims to convince Washington that Zelensky has lost command over his military forces.

“External administration is a sensible initiative from the president because many institutions no longer comply with the central government. Just look at Ukraine’s inability to maintain the ceasefire,” said Russian Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov, a former KGB officer. “Total disorder could ensue there soon, potentially leading to civil war.”

In reality, a ceasefire has yet to be implemented, and both Kyiv and Moscow continue their assaults against one another.

Dzhabarov also posited that Putin’s proposal for external governance in Ukraine might find support from the U.S., China, and India.

“If the EU resists, Brussels could seriously harm its relations with Washington,” he cautioned.

A Russian diplomat noted that Putin would refuse to make any concessions in peace talks as long as Zelensky remains in office.

“The hardliners dominate the president’s inner circle,” he observed.

“Even the smallest concession now would be perceived as a gift not to Trump, but to Zelensky. That’s unacceptable for Putin,” the diplomat said.

Putin “acts fully in accordance with Machiavelli’s advice — protect what is yours, and generously give away what is not. He would be willing to offer Canada and Greenland to Trump in exchange for Ukraine and Europe,” commented Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat who resigned from Moscow’s UN mission in Geneva in protest of the invasion, as he spoke to The Moscow Times.

The Kremlin recognizes it must provide Trump with at least a symbolic gesture to maintain his interest. One such attempt involved reviving the Black Sea grain deal, which the American side announced with significant fanfare.

This endeavor, however, was ultimately viewed as unsuccessful, as a Russian diplomat noted.

“It’s not particularly significant for Ukrainians who are already exporting their grain to the West. To make it beneficial for us, Trump would have to urge Europe to lift sanctions — which is exceedingly challenging, if not impossible,” the diplomat remarked.

While Moscow still perceives itself as the stronger party, it remains resistant to agreeing to a ceasefire — even in hopes of facilitating a deal with Trump.

This position has placed the Kremlin in a difficult situation: unable to secure a military triumph on one hand, while also refusing to compromise with Ukraine’s leadership on the other.

Consequently, Moscow risks undermining negotiations and the potential thaw in U.S.-Russia relations under Trump — inadvertently uniting the West against Russia under his administration.

“If we forfeit this opportunity, Trump won’t just disengage from the deal — he could react with fury. In that scenario, Biden would appear like a benevolent figure compared to an angry Trump. I hope our leadership considers this,” warned a source close to the Kremlin’s foreign policy team.

In a conversation with NBC News on Sunday, Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Moscow if the peace negotiations regarding Ukraine collapse.

“If Russia and I cannot reach an agreement to stop the violence in Ukraine, and if I believe it was due to Russia’s actions — which it may not be — but if I hold Russia responsible, I will impose secondary tariffs on oil, and all oil coming from Russia,” Trump declared.

According to political analyst Georgy Bovt, Putin’s call for external governance in Ukraine indicates that the Kremlin now aims to portray the country as a failed state.

“However, no UN external administration has ever been established in a genuinely failed state — nor has it been attempted. If Ukraine is indeed a failed state, then concluding a ceasefire with it makes no logical sense either,” Bovt remarked regarding the rationale behind Moscow’s position.