Kalshi Takes the Lead: Surging to 62.2% Market Share as Polymarket Struggles to Keep Up

Representatives from Kalshi announced that the platform has achieved a 62.2% share of the global trading volume in the predictions market, as reported by The Block.

In comparison, this figure was only 3.1% a year ago. Since the start of September, the platform’s turnover has reached $1.39 billion.

The monthly trading volume of its primary competitor, Polymarket, stands at $821 million.

Kalshi surpassed the $1 billion threshold in November 2024, coinciding with the U.S. elections. Although September is still ongoing, and Polymarket could outpace its rival, the recent trend indicates a growing interest in this alternative.

«It’s astonishing to witness Kalshi’s rapid growth,» commented the company’s head, Tarek Mansour.

Activity on both platforms significantly declined following last year’s U.S. elections, but analysts predict further growth for the sector. According to media reports, companies could receive higher valuations in upcoming investment rounds.

Polymarket is also preparing for a re-entry into the U.S. market after a 2022 agreement that restricted access for American users.

Both platforms remain key players in the predictions segment, where users can wager on the outcomes of various events. However, their business models differ considerably.

Polymarket is a decentralized platform focused on the crypto market. Recently, it has ramped up efforts to resume operations in the U.S. by acquiring the derivatives exchange QCEX.

Kalshi is already functioning as a regulated U.S. exchange. Recently, the platform has been striving to strengthen its position in the crypto segment, including integration with the Solana and Base networks.

Users are attempting to forecast not only the prices of crypto assets but also corporate financial results and key economic decisions. According to Bernstein, the trading volume concerning the Federal Reserve’s potential 25 basis point rate cut exceeded $200 million on Polymarket and reached $85 million on Kalshi.

Bernstein analysts note that prediction platforms are emerging as a new interface for information dissemination, combining cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, and news.

Coinbase and Robinhood are eager to establish themselves in this sector, allowing users to place bets on the outcomes of sports events in popular leagues, including the NFL. In the U.S., sports betting has already transformed into a multi-billion dollar industry.

It’s worth mentioning that Polymarket announced the launch of a market for predicting the earnings of publicly traded companies.