Kalshi завоевывает 62,2% рынка предсказаний, обгоняя Polymarket Translation: Kalshi captures 62.2% of the prediction market, surpassing Polymarket

Representatives of Kalshi have announced that the platform has captured 62.2% of the global trading volume in the prediction market, according to The Block.

In comparison, a year ago this figure was only 3.1%. Since the beginning of September, the platform’s turnover has reached $1.39 billion.

The monthly trading volume of its main competitor, Polymarket, is $821 million.

Kalshi’s volume surpassed the $1 billion mark in November 2024 amid the US elections. With September still ongoing, Polymarket could potentially overtake its rival; however, recent trends indicate a growing interest in the alternative.

«It’s remarkable to see how fast Kalshi is growing,» commented the company’s CEO Tarek Mansour.

Activity on both platforms significantly dropped following last year’s US elections, but analysts forecast further sector growth. Media reports suggest that companies might receive higher valuations in upcoming investment rounds.

Polymarket is also preparing for a return to the US market after a 2022 agreement that blocked access for American users.

Both platforms remain key players in the prediction segment, where users can place bets on various event outcomes. However, their business models differ considerably.

Polymarket is a decentralized platform with a focus on the cryptocurrency market. It has recently intensified its efforts to resume operations in the US by acquiring the derivatives exchange QCEX.

Kalshi already operates as a regulated American exchange and is looking to strengthen its position in the crypto segment, including through integration with Solana and Base networks.

Users are attempting to predict not only cryptocurrency prices but also corporate financial outcomes and significant economic decisions. According to Bernstein, the trading volume concerning a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve exceeded $200 million on Polymarket and amounted to $85 million on Kalshi.

Analysts from Bernstein point out that prediction platforms are emerging as a new interface for disseminating information, merging cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, and news.

Coinbase and Robinhood are aiming to establish themselves in this segment by allowing users to bet on the outcomes of sports events in popular leagues, including the NFL. In the US, sports betting has already evolved into a multibillion-dollar market.

It is worth noting that Polymarket has announced the launch of a prediction market for the profits of publicly traded companies.