JPMorgan прогнозирует биткоин на уровне $170,000, при этом рынки показывают признаки восстановления Translation: JPMorgan forecasts Bitcoin at $170,000 as markets show signs of recovery

Novogratz believes the market has not yet peaked

As leverage normalizes and relative volatility decreases compared to gold, the leading cryptocurrency could surge to $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months. This perspective has been shared by analysts at JPMorgan, according to The Block.

Their observations indicate that the crypto market has corrected nearly 20% from its recent highs. The most significant drop occurred on the night of October 10 to 11, amid record liquidations in perpetual contracts. This was followed by less substantial position closures on November 3.

Experts noted that the liquidations in November coincided with a new blow to investor confidence—a hack of the DeFi protocol Balancer for $128 million. The incident once again highlighted the risks associated with the security of decentralized projects.

Despite the series of sell-offs, analysts emphasized that the deleveraging phase is «largely completed.» The ratio of open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures to the asset’s market capitalization has fallen from above-average levels to historical norms.

A similar trend is observed in the Ethereum market, although the reduction in debt there has been less pronounced.

«At CME, we see a contrasting picture: the liquidations in Ethereum futures exceeded those in Bitcoin,» added JPMorgan.

The experts also stated that the observed outflows from crypto ETFs in recent weeks were negligible compared to inflows during the weeks ending on October 3 and 10.

«We believe that perpetual contracts are currently the most important instrument to monitor. The stabilization of this metric suggests that deleveraging is likely behind us,» the experts noted.

JPMorgan analysts believe that the increase in gold’s volatility has made the flagship cryptocurrency more appealing in terms of risk-reward ratio.

The volatility ratio of Bitcoin to the primary precious metal has decreased below the mark of 2. This means that the leading cryptocurrency requires approximately 1.8 times more risk capital than gold.

Based on this ratio, the experts calculated that in order to match the amounts of private investment in the precious metal, Bitcoin’s capitalization (~$2.1 trillion) would need to increase by 67%.

«This implies a theoretical price for the asset of around $170,000,» they noted.

The current price of the coin is approximately $69,000 below its adjusted value relative to gold. Experts believe this «mechanical calculation suggests significant growth potential for the asset in the next 6-12 months.»

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around ~$101,000. In the last 24 hours, its price has dropped by 2%.

Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz indicated that the «lackluster dynamics» of the crypto market are attributed to the rebalancing of hodlers’ portfolios. He believes that position redistribution is beneficial in the medium to long term.

In the short term, the situation may have a negative impact on prices.

The expert is not convinced that digital assets have reached the peak of the cycle. Novogratz expects that a change in leadership at the Fed will lead to a more lenient regulatory stance. This, in turn, will create enough momentum for the next growth phase.

CryptoQuant analyst known as MAC_D noted accelerated accumulation of Bitcoin by long-term holders—addresses that have never shown outflows. He stated that this category of investors absorbs selling pressure.

The realized price for this group continues to rise and is currently around $78,520. MAC_D believes that a true «crypto winter» will come only if this level is breached.

«Institutions, funds, and whales continue to accumulate assets even at relatively high price levels and absorb short-term pressure,» the expert remarked.

Currently, the market is entering a phase of liquidity expansion, supported by expectations of another reduction in the key rate, the end of quantitative tightening, and an increase in the dollar money supply (M2).

«Given these conditions, the current cycle is more likely to exhibit a rapid recovery of price momentum, unlike previous prolonged downturns,» summarized the analyst.

At the time of writing, market participants assess the probability of further monetary policy easing by the Fed at nearly 65%.

It is worth noting that the MVRV indicator, currently at its lowest point since April (1.8), suggested a local bottom for Bitcoin at around $100,000.