JPMorgan предсказывает, что биткоин может достичь $266 000, став более привлекательным, чем золото Translation: JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin could reach $266,000, becoming more attractive than gold.

In the long run, the first cryptocurrency could reach $266,000, as the asset becomes «more appealing than gold,» reports The Block, citing analysts at JPMorgan.

The report highlights that in the past week, market pressure has intensified amid a decline in risk assets, particularly within the tech sector. Traditional safe-haven assets, like gold and silver, have also experienced a sharp correction.

An additional blow to investor confidence came from the hacking of the DeFi platform Step Finance, based on Solana, resulting in a loss of $29 million.

The recent correction has pushed Bitcoin’s price below its estimated production cost, which has historically served as a «soft lower boundary.» Experts estimate this figure to be around $87,000.

If the prices remain below this threshold for an extended period, unprofitable miners may exit the market, which in turn would lead to a reduction in production costs, analysts explained.

In just one day, the price plummeted from approximately $73,300 to a local minimum of $60,000, marking a decline of about 18%.

Despite the current negativity, JPMorgan maintains a positive long-term outlook.

«The significant dominance of gold over Bitcoin since October last year, combined with the sharp rise in gold’s volatility, has made the first cryptocurrency even more attractive compared to gold in the long run,» analysts stated.

They emphasized that the volatility ratio of the first cryptocurrency to gold has dropped to around 1.5, a record low, making Bitcoin «increasingly appealing.»

According to their model, in order to reach parity with private investments in gold (approximately $8 trillion, excluding central bank reserves), Bitcoin’s market capitalization should correspond to a price of $266,000 per coin.

Analysts labeled this target as «unrealistic» for the current year. However, the calculations show long-term growth potential after a shift in market sentiment, when the asset once again becomes an attractive tool for hedging macro risks.

Last November, experts had projected a rise to $170,000 within 6 to 12 months, based on a comparison with the precious metal adjusted for volatility.

The new target is significantly higher but suggests a more distant horizon. This revised estimate followed an increase in the bank’s long-term gold forecast to $8,000–$8,500.

Despite the overall market weakness, the volume of liquidations in the derivatives market was lower than in the previous quarter. The unwinding of leverage in perpetual futures was more moderate compared to the severe October sell-off.

Institutional losses on the CME also decreased compared to the prior reporting period.

Fund flows in exchange-traded funds reflect negative sentiment. The ongoing outflow from spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs points to weak demand from both retail and institutional investors.

The supply of stablecoins has slightly decreased in recent weeks, indicating market participants’ caution. Nevertheless, analysts do not interpret this as a signal for capital flight.

Experts view this trend as a natural response to the overall capitalization decline. Historically, the volume of stablecoins correlates with the market: as prices fall, the ecosystem requires less liquidity.

It’s worth noting that analysts at JPMorgan have predicted a significant influx of capital into the crypto industry.