Headline: Трамп и «вертолетные деньги»: новый виток роста биткоина? Translation: Trump and “helicopter money”: a new surge for Bitcoin?

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a «dividends» program for Americans, funded by revenue from trade tariffs.

«Everyone will receive dividends of at least $2,000, except for high-income individuals,» the politician stated on his social media platform, Truth Social.

Currently, the Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of the tariff measures proposed by the president.

Traders in prediction markets have a skeptical view of the initiative’s chances of passing. At Polymarket and Kalshi, the odds stand at 23%.

According to analysts from The Kobeissi Letter, approximately 85% of the adult U.S. population, or 220 million people, could receive these payments. If that happens, the total dividend payout would amount to $440 billion.

Experts have cautioned about inflation risks. Similar stimulus measures in 2020 pushed inflation to 10%. It currently sits at 3%.

Andy Constant, CEO of Damped Spring Advisors, noted that Trump lacks the authority to unilaterally approve such payments. Legislative bodies are responsible for making decisions.

The expert expressed doubt that Congress would support the president’s initiative.

Tax and budget specialists highlighted the mismatch between the revenue from tariffs and the projected payment goals.

According to Federal Tax Policy Vice President Erica York, at least $300 billion will be needed to fund Trump’s promised dividends, while trade tariffs have so far only generated $120 billion.

In light of the overall impact tariffs have on the budget, the financial prospects of the program appear even more uncertain, the expert explained. She clarified that each dollar obtained from tariffs effectively costs the budget $24 due to reduced income tax and social contribution revenues.

Considering indirect effects, the net budget revenue falls to around $90 billion.

Libertarian economist Evgeny Romanenko suggested looking at the situation from a different perspective, viewing both tariffs and «helicopter» money as symptoms of the same problem—government interventionism.

«Any intervention offers as a ‘cure’ the very remedy that caused the illness, despite being justified as an attempt to heal. As a result, the illness remains untreated, often worsening due to unintended consequences that require further interventions, continuing until the economy slides into socialism and faces ultimate collapse,» he remarked.

He noted that the U.S. seems to be retracing a path similar to that which led to the decline of the Roman Empire.

From this standpoint, the dispute between Republicans and Democrats loses ideological significance. For libertarians, Trump is just as much a statist as his opponents; the difference lies in the direction of his interventions. Romanenko believes the traditional left-right dichotomy is a trap that distracts from the core issues.

«The correct classification can only be found in libertarian political theory or Austrian economics: either there’s no intervention, or there is. […] Therefore, any government intervention in the economy invariably leads to more intervention (if a tumor is not removed and killed, it grows and never stops on its own) until it turns into socialism and collapses,» he explained.

The economist acknowledged that «healthy cells» of American capitalism still exist—it’s their protest voice that explains the Trump phenomenon. However, he holds little hope for recovery:

«The extent of damage to the American economy is such that the current administration can only postpone the inevitable but cannot reverse the momentum.»

Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano believes that if implemented, Trump’s initiative would positively impact the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

Earlier, Bitfinex analysts expressed similar views, drawing parallels to events in 2020. During that period, COVID-19-related payments stimulated a surge of funds from retail investors and became one of the factors driving up bitcoin’s value.

In March 2020, the U.S. president signed a $2 trillion initiative, which included payments of up to $1,200 for individuals with an adjusted gross income of up to $75,000.

During that time, bitcoin’s price soared by 1,050%—from $6,000 in March 2020 to $69,000 by November 2021. However, this surge coincided with quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, which announced a $4 trillion bond-buying program, thereby increasing the money supply.

The current dividend payment could also be accompanied by favorable policies for cryptocurrencies from the Fed. Investors expect that at the December 10 meeting, the regulator will lower the key interest rate by another 25 basis points.

It is worth noting that the potential conclusion of the government shutdown in the U.S. has energized the cryptocurrency market.