Escalating Cross-Border Strikes: What Ukraines Recent Attacks in Belgorod and Bryansk Signal for the War Effort

Ukraine seems to be intensifying its cross-border operations and efforts to infiltrate Russian territory, as ground confrontations persist continuously on both sides, despite U.S. attempts to mediate peace.

In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have escalated their attacks in Russia’s border regions of Belgorod and Bryansk. Analysts view this as a tactic to shift Russia’s focus away from the Kursk area, where Russian troops are engaged in an effort to eliminate the remaining Ukrainian forces.

The scale of attacks in Belgorod and Bryansk appears significantly smaller compared to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk last August, which resulted in the capture of over 1,000 square kilometers of territory.

Kyiv aimed to leverage its presence in Kursk during peace negotiations with Russia, which has occupied large areas of eastern and southern Ukraine since launching a full-scale invasion in 2022.

Russia has accused Ukraine of making several incursions into its territory while discussions continue between Moscow and Washington regarding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.

Moscow previously dismissed a joint U.S.-Ukrainian proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, and Kyiv has similarly accused Russia of prolonging negotiations with no real intention to cease its military operations.

Here’s what we know about the current situation in the border regions and the implications of the latest attacks:

**Belgorod Region**

Ukrainian forces commenced operations in Russia’s Belgorod region last month while Russian President Vladimir Putin was in conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump.

On March 18, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that Ukrainian troops attempted to infiltrate Russian territory in the western part of Belgorod, moving towards the villages of Demidovka and Prilesye.

According to the ministry, Russian forces successfully repelled the incursion, inflicting losses on Ukrainian forces estimated at up to 60 personnel, along with a tank and seven armored vehicles, and causing the remaining Ukrainian troops to disperse.

Pro-war Russian military bloggers later acknowledged that Ukrainian forces were indeed on Russian soil.

Since this incident, local authorities have described the situation in the area as “tense,” with ongoing missile threat alerts. Starting March 19, civilian access to the region has been limited.

Kyiv has not officially confirmed operations in Belgorod and Bryansk. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned last week that the armed forces were active in the Kursk region, suggesting that these activities could extend into adjacent areas. Three Ukrainian military and government officials confirmed to The New York Times last week that operations were “ongoing” in Belgorod.

Russian military bloggers acknowledged intensified conflicts in the villages of Demidovka and Popovka last week.

One prominent Russian Telegram channel for military updates, Archangel of the Special Forces, which has over 1.1 million followers, reported that Russian troops were only controlling “half of Demodivka,” while “the enemy was still present in Popovka.”

The channel, which is believed to have connections to the Russian military, reported on Monday that Ukraine had deployed additional forces to Demidovka, and “fighting is continuing in Popovka, which the enemy is actively defending and trying to reinforce with fresh troops.”

**Bryansk Region**

The state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported on Tuesday that Russian troops thwarted “an infiltration attempt by Ukrainian forces” in the Bryansk border area. Additionally, Russian forces targeted a Ukrainian unit of around 30 soldiers near the Ukrainian village of Hremiach, located near the Bryansk border.

**Kursk Region**

Last year, when Ukraine launched a ground attack into the Russian border area of Kursk, it managed to capture at least 1,268 square kilometers.

In recent weeks, Moscow has recaptured much of this territory, including the town of Sudzha, which had served as a strategic hub for Russian gas transit to Europe. As of late March, Kyiv reportedly controlled only a narrow piece of land in the southern part of Plekhovo village.

Meanwhile, Russia has evacuated hundreds of civilians who were previously trapped in areas held by Ukraine.

The Russian Defense Ministry announced on Monday that fighting in the Kursk region was still active.

**Why are the attacks increasing at this time?**

Russia has characterized these attacks as attempts to disrupt peace negotiations with Washington and “to create a negative backdrop for the upcoming discussions.”

The state-run RIA Novosti, citing military sources, indicated that Kyiv was apparently seeking to capture “new ground in the Kursk region and gain at least some territory in Belgorod.”

Ukrainian military analyst and former SBU security service officer Ivan Stupak speculated that the uptick in Ukrainian attacks was likely aimed at “redirecting the attention” of Russian forces from other fronts.

“The objective is to shift the focus of the Russian Federation away from the heavily pressured Kursk region and to distribute the strain more evenly,” Stupak stated.

He further mentioned that these recent offensives might be a response to Russian advances in the Sumy region, which borders Kursk, where Russian forces have made recent gains against Ukrainian troops.

“The Russian narrative is evidently clear,” Stupak told The Moscow Times. “However, Ukraine fully recognizes that wherever the Russian military makes headway, pushing them back will be nearly impossible.”

“With the pressure in Sumy, everything happening in Belgorod and Bryansk, including drone strikes, constitutes an effort to divert attention and force Russian forces to spread out across the front line,” he added.