Drones in the Spotlight: Russias Escalating Air Assaults and Ukraines Counterstrikes Reveal a New Phase in Warfare

On Monday, Russia launched its largest drone assault on Ukraine to date, according to Kyiv, intensifying a lethal aerial offensive that analysts believe lacks significant military advantage and appears aimed at undermining civilian morale.

While extensive Russian drone strikes have struck Ukrainian urban areas for three consecutive nights, Ukrainian drones have been targeting military and infrastructural sites deep within Russian territory.

Between Sunday night and early Monday, Russia deployed «355 Shahed-type drones,» including decoys, along with nine cruise missiles, marking the most extensive drone offensive since the start of the invasion, reported Ukraine’s Air Force.

A Sunday assault resulted in the deaths of 13 civilians, including three children from the same family, in the central city of Zhytomyr.

In response to the attacks, President Volodymyr Zelensky urged increased pressure on Moscow. «Russian strikes grow bolder and more extensive every night,» he stated in his daily address, mentioning that approximately 900 drones and missiles had been launched against Ukraine over the preceding three days.

Military expert Alexei Alshansky commented that while Russia’s drone attacks have surged both in scale and frequency, their strategic effectiveness remains dubious. «There is no military goal behind intensifying drone assaults on Ukrainian cities; these attacks offer no tactical benefit to the Russian forces,» Alshansky told The Moscow Times. «The drones are not focused on military targets and are utterly indiscriminate.»

«This strategy is about instilling fear and psychological pressure on civilians, aiming to compel the Ukrainian side into making concessions during a fabricated peace negotiation process,» Alshansky added, noting that the recent attacks did not appear synchronized with precise missile strikes, indicating a lack of tactical advantage.

Analyst Yury Fedorov echoed Alshansky’s sentiments, asserting that Russia’s approach is a systematic tactic to influence public sentiment in Ukraine rather than targeting military or economic objectives. «In contrast, Ukrainian operations are mainly aimed at military and defense industry targets, which is justifiable. There is no ‘eye for an eye’ strategy at play,» Fedorov explained.

Russia seems increasingly aware of its own vulnerability to drone warfare. On Tuesday, Moscow accused Ukraine of escalating its aerial bombardments to disrupt peace negotiations and described its extensive attacks on Ukraine as a «response» to Ukraine’s drone strikes inside Russia.

Russia’s Defense Ministry announced on Tuesday that it intercepted 99 Ukrainian drones overnight, with the highest number — 56 — taken down over the Belgorod region near the border.

Additionally, the Tatarstan republic experienced drone attacks on Monday, according to Russian Telegram channels. Air defenses were active in Yelabuga, a city where combat drones utilized in the conflict against Ukraine are assembled.

Ivanovo regional authorities reported the destruction of four drones in their area. Telegram channels Mash and Astra indicated that the drones targeted the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in the Kineshma industrial zone, which allegedly manufactures components for Russian military hardware.

Several Russian regions, including Yaroslavl, Vladimir, Ivanovo, Oryol, Lipetsk, Tula, and Voronezh, also noted temporary mobile internet outages following this month’s drone strikes.

Moscow experienced mobile internet disruptions during the May 9 Victory Day celebrations, and drone-related flight cancellations at airports have become a frequent disruption across the nation.

In light of the ongoing attacks, Ukraine has warned that it is becoming increasingly challenging for its air defenses to manage the overwhelming number of drones launched by Moscow. «We need more efficient and cost-effective methods to intercept them,» Yuriy Ignat, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force, remarked.

A Ukrainian military source informed AFP that Kyiv was «managing to cope» with existing air defense capabilities and emphasized that while there was «no need to panic,» there is a critical need for Western weapon deliveries to sustain its defenses against the assaults.

In addition to overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses with sheer volume, Russia’s drone strategies are reportedly evolving, according to military expert Ivan Stupak, a former officer of Ukraine’s security services. «Drones are increasingly complex tools for both executing strikes and exhausting air defense systems,» he noted.

Ignat indicated that Moscow is continuously altering its drone flight paths and attempting to launch them at high altitudes to make interception more difficult. Another tactic involves deploying multiple drones against a single target, such as a town or facility, or utilizing unarmed drones to overwhelm and distract air defense systems.

An article from The Economist cited by a group of Ukrainian engineers claimed that Russia’s latest drone models are “unfazed” by Ukrainian electronic warfare techniques, as they no longer depend on jammable GPS and are instead guided by artificial intelligence. According to the article, these drones are controlled via Telegram bots that relay flight information and video feeds in real-time.

However, military experts have raised doubts about these assertions. Ukrainian electronic warfare expert Serhii Beskrestnov, who goes by the name Serhii Flash, deemed the claims misleading. «Russian Shaheds are not flown via Telegram and do not transmit video feeds through Ukrainian mobile networks,» he stated, asserting that «Shaheds do not possess AI» and that «they still rely on satellite navigation signals, which can be jammed.»

Alshansky also noted that «incorporating AI into drones would be costly, and if such technology were employed, we would likely see clear evidence in the debris — like sophisticated onboard devices.»

Nevertheless, he acknowledged that some basic automation may be feasible and remarked that the reduced effectiveness of Ukrainian electronic warfare against certain drones might indicate the use of advanced defense technologies that are more resistant to jamming. «Rather than merely flying to GPS coordinates, a drone could, in theory, compare its observations with satellite images of its target. This would represent a form of automated navigation — a rudimentary version of AI, so to speak,» Alshansky explained.

AFP contributed to this report.