Data Drought: Russias Increasing Secrecy Casts Shadow Over Economic and Demographic Statistics Amid Recession Fears

Russian authorities are increasingly limiting access to essential government statistics, such as economic, demographic, and crime data, as fears about a possible economic downturn grow, according to analysts from the state-owned Promsvyazbank (PSB) in a recent report.

This development follows President Vladimir Putin’s appeal to avert a recession, which, according to PSB analysts, has led the state statistics agency Rosstat to withhold several crucial macroeconomic indicators for June and the first half of 2025.

Data that has not been disclosed includes adjusted retail and wholesale trade figures. Although Rosstat reported a nominal annual increase of 12.2% in retail turnover for June, it did not provide the real, inflation-adjusted figure. PSB analysts suggest that actual growth may be in the range of 2-3%.

Concerns grew further with the wholesale trade statistics. Rosstat indicated a nominal increase of 0.4%, yet PSB suggested that the real turnover might have decreased by as much as 10%, continuing a trend of decline over the past few months.

Additionally, the usual real GDP figures for June, typically released by the Ministry of Economic Development, were not published.

This lack of data is part of a larger pattern that emerged after Russia commenced its comprehensive invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Customs statistics and information regarding the Central Bank’s gold and foreign currency reserves have been made confidential. Furthermore, large enterprises are no longer obligated to publish their financial outcomes or details about their senior management.

In 2023, the government classified figures related to oil and gas production, and by 2024, in the wake of several drone attacks attributed to Ukraine, Rosstat ceased publicizing data on gasoline and diesel production.

Demographic information has been particularly impacted. Following the invasion, Rosstat stopped releasing mortality statistics broken down by age and region.

By 2024, it further withheld information on causes of death, which could provide indirect insights into military casualties.

In 2025, as birth rates fell to unprecedented lows, the agency halted all monthly data related to births, deaths, marriages, and divorces, as well as regional population statistics.

The Interior Ministry has also curtailed information related to crime-associated mortality, amidst a reported rise in serious crimes linked to the return of former prisoners from combat. Reports indicate that violent crime levels are currently at their highest in 15 years.