CryptoQuant CEO Acknowledges Bitcoin Cycle Theory is No Longer Valid

The CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, stated that the theory of Bitcoin cycles is no longer applicable. The expert acknowledged the inaccuracies of his previous forecasts.

He mentioned that the market used to operate on a straightforward principle: «buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail enters.» However, now old large-scale investors are selling their assets to new long-term holders. Institutional players have begun to play a more significant role than anticipated.

«Currently, trading seems pointless, as there are more holders than traders,» wrote the head of CryptoQuant.

The expert also apologized again for his erroneous Bitcoin forecast. In March, Ki Young Ju declared the end of the bull market for the first cryptocurrency, at which time he overlooked the shortcomings of the cycle theory.

«I sincerely apologize if my analyses influenced your investment decisions. In the future, I will emphasize data rather than outdated patterns,» he noted.

Previously, CryptoQuant analyst Burak Keshmec noted that there has been a sustained decrease in the balances of smaller market participants since 2023. By 2024, significant accumulation by whales began, as evidenced in the accompanying chart.

Not all members of the crypto community agreed with the CEO of CryptoQuant regarding Bitcoin cycles. A trader known as Crypto Ex-Insider argued that this theory has not died but rather evolved.

«The conflict between retail investors and whales has shifted to a game among long-term titans reshaping the market. This is not the end of the trading era but the beginning of a slower, larger struggle for liquidity,» he wrote.

User Macrofi highlighted that the core issue lies in reliance on on-chain analysis rather than the Bitcoin cycle theory: «As long as you depend on on-chain data analysis, you will continue to make mistakes and revise your theories since this data always comes with a delay. This means your new conclusions could also be incorrect.»

**Bitcoin is Expected to Reach $135,000 by Year-End**

Meanwhile, major American bank Citi shared an updated forecast for Bitcoin by the end of the year, as reported by CoinDesk. Analysts presented three scenarios:

They identified three key factors that will influence the price dynamics of the cryptocurrency: growth in the user base, macroeconomic conditions, and demand from ETFs.

CryptoQuant analyst known as G a a h noted that for the third time in the current cycle, the Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) metric has reached the euphoria zone. However, the metric only grazed the lower boundary at 80%. While the market is still in a growth phase, «it has the potential for new records.»

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $115,654. According to CoinGecko, the asset’s price has decreased by 2% in the past 24 hours. Analysts attributed the drop to the sales from Galaxy Digital.

It is worth mentioning that leading analyst at Glassnode, James Check, expressed doubt that Bitcoin will reach the $200,000 mark this year.