Challenges Ahead: Russias Long Road to Replace Lost Bombers After Ukrainian Drone Strikes

Western military aviation experts indicate that it will take years for Russia to replace the nuclear-capable bomber aircraft that were damaged in recent Ukrainian drone strikes. This situation adds pressure to an already delayed modernization effort.

Satellite imagery from airfields in Siberia and Russia’s far north reveal significant destruction from these attacks, with multiple aircraft completely destroyed, though reports vary on the exact number impacted.

The U.S. estimates that as many as 20 aircraft were affected—approximately half of what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed—while around 10 were confirmed destroyed, according to two U.S. officials who spoke with Reuters.

On Thursday, the Russian government refuted claims of aircraft losses, asserting that repairs would be made. However, some military bloggers from Russia have reported substantial damage or losses of roughly a dozen planes, blaming commanders for their negligence.

These strikes, orchestrated over 18 months as part of a Ukrainian intelligence initiative known as «Spider’s Web,» involved drones that were secretly transported close to military bases in trucks. They delivered a significant symbolic impact to a nation that has frequently highlighted its nuclear capabilities during the Ukraine conflict.

Experts assert that, in practical terms, these strikes are unlikely to significantly undermine Russia’s nuclear strike abilities, which primarily rely on land- and submarine-launched missiles.

The damaged Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-22M3 Backfire bombers are part of a long-range aviation fleet that Russia has utilized throughout the conflict to launch conventional missiles at Ukrainian cities, defense installations, military targets, and energy infrastructure, noted Justin Bronk, an aviation analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London.

This fleet has also been conducting routine patrols in the Arctic, North Atlantic, and northern Pacific, projecting power to deter Western adversaries.

At the beginning of its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia was operating between 50 to 60 Bear-Hs and about 60 Backfires, in addition to around 20 Tu-160M Blackjack heavy bombers capable of carrying nuclear payloads.

Bronk estimates that Russia has already lost over 10% of its combined Bear-H and Backfire fleet, factoring in the recent attacks and losses of several aircraft earlier in the conflict—some shot down and others damaged while on the ground.

These losses «will exert significant stress on a crucial Russian force that was already operating at full capacity,» Bronk told Reuters.

The Russian Defense Ministry did not respond promptly to requests for comments.

Replacing these aircraft is expected to be a formidable challenge. The Bear-H and Backfire were both designed during the Soviet era and have not been manufactured for decades, according to Douglas Barrie, an aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, despite some upgrades to existing planes over the years.

Barrie noted that producing new models identical to the originals is highly improbable, and it’s uncertain whether Russia possesses any available spare airframes of either type.

Western sanctions targeting Russia have sought to limit the importation of vital components, such as microprocessors necessary for avionics systems. Despite this, Moscow has been relatively adept at locating alternative sources thus far, Barrie added.

Russia has been making strides in modernizing its Blackjack bomber fleet. President Putin signaled a strong message to the West by taking a short flight in one of these aircraft last year, declaring it operational.

However, the pace of Blackjack production has been slow—one Russian military blogger recently mentioned a rate of about four per year—and experts in the West indicate that the development of Russia’s next-generation PAK DA bomber is also proceeding at a sluggish rate.

According to a report from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) last month, Russia entered into a contract with manufacturer Tupolev in 2013 to develop the PAK DA, but Russian media reports suggest that state test flights are not expected until next year, with initial production slated to start in 2027.

While it might seem reasonable for Russia to accelerate its PAK DA timeline, capacity constraints could hinder this effort, said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at FAS. He mentioned in a phone interview that Russia is facing delays with various other major defense projects, including the new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile.

RUSI’s Bronk expresses doubt regarding Moscow’s ability to expedite the timeline for the next-generation bomber.

«Russia will find it difficult to progress the PAK DA program at all in the next five years, let alone speed it up, due to budget constraints and the limitations on industry caused by sanctions,» he stated.