Bitfinex Analysts Predict Bitcoin Surge to $125,000 in July Amid Employment Data Influences

In July, Bitcoin could rise to a range of $120,000 to $125,000 if a weak U.S. employment report prompts the Federal Reserve to ease its monetary policy and decide on lowering the key interest rate. This information comes from The Block, citing analysts from Bitfinex.

Stronger-than-expected data may lead to a drop in prices to around $95,000.

Bitfinex analysts are anticipating signs of a slowdown in the labor market in the upcoming employment report scheduled for June 6. They predict that new non-farm jobs will range from 125,000 to 130,000, significantly lower than the April figure of 177,000.

It is expected that unemployment will remain at 4.2%, with average hourly wages increasing by 0.2% to 0.3% compared to the previous month.

Weak labor market data could strengthen the narrative around slowing inflation and accelerate the Fed’s interest rate cuts. Consequently, this would bolster investor interest in riskier assets, like Bitcoin, according to Bitfinex.

A more favorable report could delay any interest rate cuts, strengthen the dollar, and exert downward pressure on Bitcoin. In such a scenario, the range of $95,000 to $97,000 would serve as a local bottom, where accumulation is already observed, the company noted.

The market anticipates that interest rates will remain in the current range of 4.25% to 4.5% at least until the end of July, with most traders not forecasting a reduction until September.

Leading BRN analyst Valentin Fournier has adopted a more cautious stance, urging market participants to consider a defensive strategy in light of increasing bearish signals.

Among the concerning indicators are: a decrease in fund inflows to ETFs, a weakening market momentum, and a rise in cryptocurrency IPOs. The latter may indicate that investors are looking to lock in short-term profits.

In his view, crypto companies see the current market situation as an opportunity to benefit from high valuations. This might suggest expectations of slowing growth or price declines «among insiders.»

Additionally, analysts from CryptoQuant have suggested that Bitcoin could return to the $96,700 level, which aligns with the average purchase price for short-term investors.