Bitcoin Faces Key Decision Point Amid Potential Correction, Ethereum Set for Growth

Bitcoin is currently at a «decision-making point,» and it is crucial for the asset to break free from its existing price range, according to analyst James Check.

«We are right at a decision-making juncture, and to persuade individuals that a lower peak is in play or that the bullish trend will continue, we just need one significant red or green candle,» the expert explained.

Data from Glassnode indicates that 88% of the total supply of the leading cryptocurrency is «in profit» compared to its last transaction price. This figure suggests a shift in investor expectations without the need for a large-scale capitulation.

The MVRV indicator has adjusted to a long-term average of 1.74, which has historically been associated with consolidation phases.

«This marks a cooling of unrealized profits, similar to position closures observed in August 2024, and may provide support if the price remains steady,» noted experts from the analytics firm.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $94,000. After attempting to test the $98,000 mark, the price corrected to levels last seen at the end of April.

Senior researcher at Glassnode, going by the name CryptoVizArt, commented that the rally towards the $93,000 to $96,000 range has pushed profit-taking volumes above statistical averages.

«The fact that the price still surpasses $93,000 is quite surprising, but in my humble opinion, it is also risky,» he emphasized.

Bitcoin traders are awaiting updates on the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. LVRG Research director Nick Rak shared this insight with CoinDesk.

«Given the current macroeconomic climate in the U.S., investors may be overly cautious about high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies, despite BTC’s trend moving away from correlation with U.S. stocks,» he remarked.

Over the weekend, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that it is considering the U.S. proposal to resume trade discussions. President Donald Trump hinted that Beijing «wants a deal.»

«We remain optimistic that prices will rise to new highs in the long term as institutional adoption deepens due to RWA issuances and integration with crypto platforms,» Rak added.

Despite market participants’ skeptical attitudes toward forecasts, Polymarket shows a pessimistic outlook, assigning only a 20% probability to a trade agreement between the two largest economies. However, the yuan strengthened to a six-month high «on the news.»

Earlier, Glassnode advised Bitcoin bulls to «exercise caution.» Analysts indicated that it is essential to ensure that prices stabilize above $91,000 to $93,000 due to the «weak» buying momentum.

Experts believe that the $93,000 to $95,000 levels, aligning with the base value of short-term holders, represent a «critical battleground» for market dynamics.

«They signify a pivotal tipping point that must be maintained. A failure to stabilize above this range could pull the price back into a consolidation zone, leading many investors to substantial unrealized losses,» the analysts at Glassnode warned.

On March 10, long-term Ethereum holders transitioned into the realm of unrealized losses, as pointed out by on-chain analyst Carmelo Aleman Santana from CryptoQuant.

However, by May 3, this group had increased their total balance from approximately 15.5 million ETH to around 19 million ETH.

«This behavior reflects structural conviction and clear expectations for short-term growth,» the expert commented.

Ethereum developers have scheduled the activation of the Pectra hard fork for May 7. This upgrade includes a series of improvements aimed at enhancing the network’s usability and efficiency. One significant innovation introduces smart contract functionality into wallets, simplifying their use and recovery.

Since the beginning of the year, Ethereum has consistently lost ground against Bitcoin. However, ahead of the hard fork, the Bollinger Bands indicator has narrowed significantly.

This metric signals an impending increase in volatility for the asset. The trend is largely dependent on the direction the price breaks out from the established range, noted CoinDesk’s co-managing editor, Omkar Godbole.

He believes that the Pectra update could be a key factor driving potential price movements.

«L2 networks will reap the most benefits. By doubling the capacity of BLOB objects and making call data more costly, Pectra establishes binary arrays as the standard for publishing summary data. This strengthens Ethereum’s role as a data accessibility layer and reinforces scalability strategies,» Nansen analysts commented.

In summary, Bernstein identified factors that could lead Bitcoin to rise to $1 million.