Android Earthquake Alert System Failed to Provide Accurate Warnings During Turkeys Devastating Quakes

Experts have discovered that on February 6, 2023, when two powerful earthquakes struck Turkey, the Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) system activated but did so inaccurately. Specifically, for the earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8, it estimated the tremor’s strength at only 4.5, 7.1 seconds after the event, with a peak reading of just 4.9.

This significant underassessment resulted in less urgent «BeAware» alerts being sent to approximately half a million devices within a 64 km radius. In the case of the second earthquake, which had a magnitude of 7.5, the initial assessment was 6.1, later adjusting to 6.3. Consequently, «BeAware» notifications were distributed to nearly 4 million phones with delays ranging from several seconds to over a minute.

While traditional seismic networks are crucial for early earthquake detection, many countries prone to quakes lack such systems, making solutions like AEA vital.

Subsequently, Google acknowledged the failure and improved its detection algorithms. For instance, the duration for monitoring earthquake parameters was initially limited to 10 seconds and has now been extended to 30 seconds, allowing for more data collection.

There was also an issue with selecting phones in the monitoring pool, leading to delayed system activations. Thanks to recent updates, the system now more selectively chooses smartphones based on their sound settings. Additionally, Google revamped the «BeAware» alerts to eliminate vibrations and enhance the accuracy of earthquake notifications.

Google conducted simulation tests with the updated algorithms and concluded that if an earthquake of magnitude 7.8 were to occur today, the system would register it as a magnitude 4.6 after 6.3 seconds and would further increase that estimation to 7.4 after 24 seconds. As a result, 10 million devices would receive more meaningful «TakeAction» alerts within 35 seconds, while «BeAware» notifications would reach 67 million users within a maximum delay of 2.5 minutes.

Despite the shortcomings of AEA, a survey of over 1.5 million users from various countries, excluding the United States, yielded an average usefulness rating of 4.7 out of 5 for the system. Notably, 85% of respondents found the alerts highly beneficial in their situations. Of those surveyed, 36% reported receiving warnings before the tremors, 28% during, and 23% after.

Those who received «TakeAction» messages utilized the Drop, Cover, and Hold On advice in 28% of cases, which is an increase compared to previous surveys conducted by other earthquake early warning systems. Moreover, 84% of respondents indicated they would trust the system more in the future, while only 0.1% opted to disable the alerts.

Earlier, Google revealed how the earthquake alert system functions on Android devices. The Android Earthquake Alerts service gathers data from smartphone accelerometers to detect seismic activity. Over the past four years, the feature has registered more than 18,000 earthquakes and sent alerts to millions of people in nearly 100 countries.