Analyst Predicts Conservative Bitcoin Growth Toward $160,000 Amid Investor Sentiment Shifts

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler has presented a «conservative» price forecast for Bitcoin, predicting an increase to $160,000.

Adler’s observations indicate that during the last three bull phases, long-term investors (LTHs) were actively accumulating their positions before substantial price increases began. He noted that this trend first emerged around the $28,000 mark, with an increase in the LTH share compared to short-term holders (STHs) occurring in the 1-2 months leading up to Bitcoin’s rise to $60,000.

A similar accumulation was observed again at the $60,000 level during a consolidation phase, which served as a catalyst for reaching $100,000.

He mentioned that, under a more conservative forecast with a multiplier of 1.6, the target for the next wave of growth would be approximately $160,000.

In the context of a sideways market, analysts from Santiment reported a decline in retail investor sentiment.

Conversely, the volume of illiquid Bitcoin supply has increased from 13.9 million BTC at the beginning of the year to 14.37 million BTC, according to Glassnode data.

The circulating supply of Bitcoin is around ~19,880,000. Therefore, the proportion of the illiquid supply is approximately ~72%.

This figure represents the share of Bitcoins held by participants with low on-chain activity, primarily long-term investors and cold wallet owners. Such coins are effectively out of circulation, reducing the amount of assets available for trading and, consequently, the potential selling pressure.

The trend of rising illiquid supply often reflects investors’ confidence in the future prospects of the first cryptocurrency, along with the growing appeal of narratives surrounding its status as a «safe haven» and censorship-resistant store of value.

Additionally, CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole has pointed to a «Bull Flag» pattern on the chart, suggesting potential growth to $140,000 or beyond.