A Year After Bitcoins Halving: Whats Different This Time?

It has been over a year since the fourth halving, yet Bitcoin continues to languish—trading approximately 12% below its all-time high (ATH) from the moment Donald Trump was inaugurated, as reported in previous analyses. In terms of historical trends, this sluggish performance is the most unconvincing compared to previous market cycles.

Historically, following halvings, the leading cryptocurrency consistently delighted investors with impressive gains within 12 months. However, the years 2024–2025 deviate from this established pattern, with the market seemingly stuck in a wait-and-see mode.

According to research by Kaiko, Bitcoin’s price surged by 7,000% in the year following the halving in 2012, while the growth during the market phases of 2016 and 2020 was 291% and 541%, respectively.

Clearly, in the current cycle, the price falls short of such benchmarks. After the block reward was halved from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, Bitcoin’s price has only appreciated by 46% (as of April 29).

Price movements remain tepid amidst growing macroeconomic uncertainties. In the first quarter of 2025, global tensions intensified due to the introduction of «liberation» tariffs, leading to a decreased risk appetite among investors.

In the six months following the fourth halving, the average Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (according to FRED) was recorded at 317. For comparison, during similar post-halving periods, this index stood at 107 in 2012, 109 in 2016, and 186 in 2020.

The EPU measures the degree of uncertainty in economic policy based on media analysis, projections of tax expenditure, and expert disagreements. High values of this metric correlate with increased stock market volatility, reduced investments, and a flight to «safe» assets like gold.

Between 2020 and 2022, an increase in EPU coincided with a capital influx into Bitcoin, which many view as a hedge against inflation and political risks. Studies noted that the long-term investor-oriented MVRV indicator has shown a sharp decline in unrealized profits. He interprets this as a sign of market maturation and diminishing potential returns.

During the 2016–2020 cycle, the indicator peaked at 35.8, indicating substantial «paper» profits and a clear market peak. However, from 2020 to 2024, this maximum drastically decreased to 12.2, despite the ATH being breached.

In the current cycle, the maximum «hodler» MVRV reached only 4.35, significantly lower than in previous cycles. The sharp decline in this metric indicates that long-term holders are no longer realizing such vast profits.

He also pointed out that it is too early to assert that the final peak of this cycle has been achieved. Historically, markets frequently enter a sideways pattern or exhibit moderate corrections before setting new highs.

Given the growing influence of institutional investors, it is possible that the current accumulation phase will last longer than in previous cycles.

The structure of the cryptocurrency market has evolved over time, and the once-familiar four-year cycles seem to be losing relevance.

Mitchell Askew, an analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro and Blockware Solutions, believes that with the arrival of institutional investors, the “parabolic growth model of Bitcoin” followed by sharp corrections is changing. The mining industry is also becoming more efficient and stable, which affects supply and price trends.

In the past, halvings typically heralded rapid price increases, often followed by corrections exceeding 70%. Now, this factor appears less significant, yet the number of institutional investors is on the rise. They contribute to market stability, although this makes the market more susceptible to macroeconomic factors.

According to Askew, spot ETFs and corporate investments are helping to stabilize demand for Bitcoin, thereby reducing the likelihood of sharp price fluctuations. Unlike retail traders, who tend to buy during euphoric surges and panic-sell during corrections, institutions more often realize profits during rises and accumulate assets during downturns.

Like other experts, Askew has observed longer periods of consolidation before growth resumes. He notes that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a traditional financial asset, losing characteristics of a highly volatile and speculative instrument.

The specialist pointed out that the efficiency of mining equipment has plateaued, which could significantly impact Bitcoin’s production and supply structure. He observed that new models of ASIC devices are only about 10% more efficient than previous models, allowing them to remain profitable for four to eight years.

However, it is not just periodic reductions in rewards that affect the profitability of mining digital gold.

Currently, mining is more challenging and costly than ever. But what is the cost of producing one Bitcoin? Providing a definitive answer is complicated due to the primary variable—electricity prices, which vary by region.

Researchers from the CCAF estimate the average cost of mining 1 BTC at $49,887 (data as of April 30).

A correction of more than 40%—from current levels around $94,000 to the breakeven point of $50,000—seems unlikely. Consequently, the chances of miner capitulation in the near future are also low.

The dust from the «liberation» tariffs has settled, and the overwhelming majority of on-chain metrics have yet to approach overheating territory. The market continues to maintain relative stability, but the question increasingly arises: “When will the rally resume?”

In March, CryptoQuant’s CEO Ki Young Ju concluded that the bullish trend has ended—over the next 6-12 months, the market may expect a correction or a prolonged sideways movement.

After the surge to $94,000, the expert acknowledged that the price was 10% above the level at which he declared the end of the bullish trend.

Ki Young Ju added that he will continue to monitor the data for the next few weeks in search of confirmation signs of a reversal. However, as long as the price remains below $100,000, his perspective will not change: it is premature to discuss a return to an uptrend.

Some on-chain analysts are more optimistic. For instance, a CryptoQuant author known as IT Tech noted that after several weeks of consistently negative values, the Apparent Demand Indicator has turned upward, indicating a clear recovery in demand.

This metric reflects the net change in the volume of coins that have not moved for a year, taking into account daily block rewards. It serves as an indirect measure of demand strength.

According to his observations, this is the first significant change in the indicator since February and occurs amidst increasing capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and the accumulation of positions by long-term investors.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, used the Bitcoin Energy Value (BEV) model to conclude that the first cryptocurrency is trading at 40% below its fair value—$130,000.

BEV determines the «fair price» of digital gold based on the energy used in its mining. Here’s how this metric is calculated:

V = E*C/S

where:

Crypto Caesar, an expert, is confident that surpassing the psychological barrier of $100,000 will pave the way for Bitcoin to reach new historical highs between $110,000 and $115,000.

He believes that the support range of $89,000–$90,000 is favorable for active buying and is intended to limit potential declines in Bitcoin’s price.

The area below, around $70,000–$72,000, remains “unexploited.” This range aligns with a diagonal support line, which could play a critical role if a deeper correction occurs.

An increasing portion of Bitcoin acquired at lower prices indicates an approach to the «historical level of euphoria,» as shared by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.

He noted that this metric has now exceeded 85%, which is «quite positive.» During the previous correction, the metric fell nearly to 75%.

Another colleague of Darkfost, Carmelo Aleman, highlighted that the realized capitalization of digital gold has reached a record value again at its ATH.

The researcher views this as a bullish signal and signs of «confidence in the asset» among whales and retail investors, who are «betting on strong growth soon.»

This metric represents the total value of all Bitcoins in circulation, calculated based on the last price at which each coin moved on the blockchain.

Some analysts are looking to the future with even greater optimism. For instance, Peter Chang of Presto Research predicts Bitcoin will rise to $210,000 by the end of 2025.

According to him, such dynamics will be influenced by increasing institutional interest and rising global liquidity. He also believes that recent corrections have acted as a «healthy shake-up» that has laid a more solid foundation for the next upward trend.

Jeffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered has a more cautious forecast: he expects Bitcoin to reach $120,000 in the fourth quarter. By the end of 2025, he estimates the price may hit $200,000. He links this growth to the ongoing reallocation of capital from American assets to the leading cryptocurrency.

Bernstein analysts predict that by the end of 2025, cryptocurrency will reach peak values of this cycle around $200,000. Despite inevitable bearish phases, experts forecast growth to $500,000 by 2030 and $1 million by the end of 2033.

A year following the fourth halving, Bitcoin is showing an unusually sluggish dynamic: +46% compared to the previous hundreds or thousands of percent.

Analysts attribute this restrained growth to high macroeconomic uncertainty and the maturing of the first cryptocurrency. Bitcoin increasingly resembles a traditional financial instrument, as evidenced by the growing correlation with gold amid turbulence. Bitcoin is shedding its characteristics as a speculative asset: volatility is steadily declining, as is the «paper profit» of hodlers.

The growing influence of ETFs and institutional whales, who «accumulate during declines,» contributes to market stability. Therefore, analysts predict a shift to gradual and more measured growth, where macro trends and regulatory clarity will play a crucial role.

Many experts assert that the bullish phase is far from over, anticipating new highs later this year. However, unlike previous cycles, we might experience a longer period of price consolidation before the next growth impulse.