Decline in Russia-China Trade Signals Economic Shifts in 2025

According to data released on Monday by China’s General Administration of Customs, trade between Russia and China experienced a year-on-year decline of 9.1% in the first half of 2025, amounting to $106.48 billion.

Chinese shipments to Russia decreased by 8.4% between January and June, totaling $47.16 billion, while imports from Russia fell by 9.6% to $59.32 billion. This resulted in a trade surplus for Russia of $12.16 billion, reflecting a decline of 10.2% compared to the same timeframe last year.

In June, bilateral trade remained relatively stable at approximately $17.6 billion, with Chinese exports rising by 2.2% to $8.28 billion and a 2.9% decrease in Russian imports, which totaled $9.32 billion.

The drop in trade follows a significant slowdown in the growth of commerce between Russia and China last year, which saw only a 1.9% increase in 2024 after a substantial 26% rise in 2023. While Chinese exports to Russia grew by 5% last year, Russian shipments to China saw a modest increase of just 1%.

Since the imposition of Western sanctions following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, China has become an essential economic ally for Russia. With restrictions limiting access to Western energy markets, Russia has increasingly turned to oil exports to China for financial support.

On the other hand, China’s overall trade statistics indicated stronger-than-anticipated growth in June, with exports rising by 5.8% year-on-year, outperforming the 5% increase predicted in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Imports also rose by 1.1%, exceeding expectations of a mere 0.3% growth.

Exports hit record levels in 2024, bolstering China’s slowing economy in the face of ongoing challenges, such as a protracted debt crisis in the property sector, weak domestic consumption, and high youth unemployment.

Reporting contributed by AFP.