Cautious Optimism: 96.7% of Bitcoin Supply in Profit Signals Market Volatility Risks

As of the end of June, 96.7% of the supply of Bitcoin was in profit, indicating a high risk of volatility, according to a report from Glassnode.

Historically, such elevated profit levels tend to exert selling pressure as the potential for profit-taking increases, researchers noted. The current landscape reflects a «bullish sentiment among investors, albeit with a cautious approach regarding price corrections.»

From June 22 to June 30, the ratio of realized profits to losses for Bitcoin surged from 1.1 to 2.8 points.

«It seems that the market has entered a phase of cautious optimism, supported by stronger positions from institutional players and a renewed interest in accumulation,» Glassnode added.

Experts believe that ongoing demand and broader market confidence are essential for sustaining the rally.

In a weekly report, the company indicated that overall «paper profits» for Bitcoin investors reached $1.2 trillion, nearing the historic peak of $1.3 trillion recorded at the end of 2024.

The average unrealized profit for holders of the digital asset stands at 125%, down from 180% prior to the peak.

«Holdling appears to be the dominant market behavior across multiple spending metrics,» analysts concluded.

This trend contributes to a decrease in realized profits for Bitcoin while increasing the volume of coins held by long-term investors. This metric is approaching record levels.

Glassnode also noted a significant drop in selling activity from short-term holders following Bitcoin’s rise to levels near its historical high in May 2025.

«This further suggests that the current price range is not sufficiently attractive for investors to continue selling, implying that the market may need to either rise (or fall) to unlock additional supply,» researchers emphasized.

It’s worth mentioning that analysts from Standard Chartered have stated that the upcoming halving will no longer impact the Bitcoin cycle and predicted its growth to $200,000 by the end of 2025.