Bitcoin Whales Shift from Accumulation to Distribution: Analysts Sound Alarm

Wallet holders with balances of at least 10,000 BTC have shifted from purchasing to distributing their coins, while investors with smaller holdings continue to accumulate digital gold. This is reported by CoinDesk.

These insights arise from changes in the Accumulation Trend Score indicator, which reflects the accumulation dynamics across different address categories.

For the largest holders, the score has dropped to 0.4. This metric ranges from 0 (indicating a predominance of sales) to 1 (indicating a predominance of purchases).

Whales began increasing their positions in April when the price of Bitcoin fell to $75,000. The current shift reflects a desire among market participants to secure profits near the historical high (ATH) and protect themselves against a potential halt in price increases.

On-chain analysis further complements this by observing the trends of large players moving coins from exchanges to non-custodial wallets. In two of the last three days, whales have started to transfer Bitcoin back to accounts on centralized exchanges (CEX), which is typically associated with impending sales.

Analysts estimate that the rise in price towards ATH has resulted in a surge in unrealized profits exceeding two standard deviations. Historically, this has signaled the market entering a phase of euphoria.

Investors have experienced short-term spikes in volatility followed by a decline in metrics towards equilibrium levels — only in 16% of all trading days does «paper» profit exceed this threshold.

Currently, the pace of coin sales has not reached extreme levels. Specialists estimate that the net realization of profit (7-day moving average) lags behind the levels of 14.4% across all trading days.

The SOPR indicator also suggests that there is room for further movement towards extremes. To date, the average realized profit has reached 16%, with only 8% of trading days in history showing the metric at higher levels.

The derivatives market indicates an uptick in leverage among investors. Since April, the open interest in Bitcoin futures has risen by 51%, reaching $55.6 billion compared to $36.8 billion previously. In the options market, a 126% increase was recorded, jumping from $20.4 billion to $46.2 billion.

These figures reflect the expansion of participants using derivatives, indicating either increased confidence in market prospects or heightened risks associated with elevated levels of borrowed capital.

In summary, experts have identified potential resistance and support levels. Should a correction occur, the price could drop to the range of $91,800 to $95,900, where the 111 DMA, 200 DMA, and the «cost basis» of short-term investors are situated. Another key level is around $100,200 (0.5 standard deviations from the MVRV).

A «ceiling» for prices may form approaching $119,400 (one standard deviation from the aforementioned indicator).

«The market has reached a certain level of intensity. However, there still exists the potential for further growth before unrealized profits surpass extreme levels (one standard deviation from MVRV),» the report states.

It is worth noting that on May 30, options on digital gold with a notional value of $10.1 billion will expire on the Deribit platform, according to a financial report. Based on current metrics, the first cryptocurrency may encounter significant price fluctuations.

In contracts expiring in June and July, there is greater activity in call options with strikes at $115,000 and $120,000.

Previously, CoinDesk shared six charts of various indicators supporting a strong foundation for Bitcoin’s potential to rise above $100,000.