Glassnode Questions Bitcoins Reversal After Stabilizing Above $80,000

Although the first cryptocurrency remains above the demand zone around $76,000-$80,000, several on-chain metrics suggest this is a «hope rally» within a downtrend, rather than a reversal. Analysts at Glassnode have drawn this conclusion.

According to their findings, Bitcoin has been trading within this range since the end of February. Each sell-off towards the lows has been met with quick recoveries, indicating strong demand.

Such episodes have been characterized by the realized profit ratio dropping below 1, which indicates that losses outweigh gains. This imbalance suggests that bears are losing steam, the experts pointed out.

Analysts have not found any signs of renewed strength or sustainability, reflecting a market still experiencing an emotional and financial «hangover» following the all-time high of around $109,000.

In a logarithmic scale, the 90-day moving average reflected short-term spikes but did not disrupt the broader downtrend. This lack of evidence does not support claims of a structural shift in favor of bulls, experts emphasized.

Glassnode noted that, following signs of waning momentum and decreasing profitability, the current market structure exhibits nearly all the characteristics of a typical bear market phase.

As of March 30, calculations indicated that 4.7 million BTC were trading below their purchase prices, which is lower than the extreme levels seen in mid-2021 during the last downtrend.

This situation could point to the absence of bull capitulation, which often lays the groundwork for new bull runs.

Experts have drawn similar conclusions regarding the share of Bitcoin’s market capitalization at a loss according to the MVRV metric. This metric rose to 2%, which is significantly lower than the figures seen during previous bear markets.

On average, investors purchased these coins at around $96,700, suggesting a «paper» loss of 12%. This level of MVRV is among the lowest in the current cycle, although it has not reached the deep lows observed in the past.

Previously, CryptoQuant highlighted concerning signals for Bitcoin across four different indicators. One verified contributor confirmed that the MVRV still does not indicate that prices have hit the bottom.

In Nansen’s report, they stated that the cryptocurrency market may reach a medium-term low in the next two months amidst global uncertainty surrounding ongoing trade tariff negotiations.

As a reminder, on the night of November 3rd, Bitcoin fell below $85,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on trade partners.