The AI Behind Trumps Tariff Calculations: A ChatGPT-Inspired Theory Emerges

A theory has emerged in the online community suggesting that the recently announced «liberation» tariffs by Donald Trump were created using artificial intelligence.

On April 2, Trump announced a general baseline import tariff of 10% applicable to all countries, alongside additional rates for specific nations. For example, Vietnam faces a tariff of 46%, Taiwan 32%, Thailand 32%, Cambodia 49%, China 54%, and the EU 20%.

Some X users consulted ChatGPT to calculate tariff rates and received similar figures. Crypto trader Jordan Fish inquired about a straightforward method to set tariffs for other countries, ensuring the U.S. maintained fair conditions amidst its trade deficit.

The chatbot advised implementing tariffs for each trading partner proportional to the trade deficit relative to total imports. The formula provided was as follows:

Tariff Rate (%) = max(10, (trade deficit + total imports) * 100)

For instance, if the U.S. has a $20 billion deficit with imports from a specific country totaling $100 billion, the tariff would be (20/100) * 100 = 20%.

A user known as DCinvestor reiterated the question and received the same answer. ChatGPT clarified that the formula had not been previously applied anywhere, claiming it was an original creation.

“I believe they asked ChatGPT to calculate tariffs for other nations, which is why the figures are utterly nonsensical. They are simply dividing the trade deficit with a particular country by the imports from that country or setting 10%, depending on which is higher,” commented Steven Bonnell.

Wojtek Kopczuk, editor of the Journal of Public Economics, conducted a similar experiment and received a corresponding answer.

Author Krishnan Rohit pointed out that GPT-4o, o3, Gemini 2.5 Pro, Claude 3.7, and Grok all produced identical results.

“This may represent the first significant application of AI technology in geopolitics,” he observed.

The crypto market reacted negatively to the introduction of the new U.S. tariffs. After a brief surge above $88,000, Bitcoin declined to around $82,000. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading near $83,000.

At Nansen, it is believed that the cryptocurrency market could reach a local bottom within the next two months. The Guardian highlighted that the announcement of retaliatory tariffs against U.S. trading partners could trigger a chain reaction, potentially leading to a «global economic war.»

Recall that on March 26, analysts from Glassnode reported that whales had purchased $11.2 billion worth of Bitcoin over two weeks, marking the fastest accumulation rate since August 2024.