Assessing the Possibility of a New Russian Assault on Ukraines Sumy Region

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently asserted that Russia is gearing up for a new offensive targeting Ukraine’s Sumy region, which shares a border with Russia’s Kursk area.

This claim arose as Moscow’s military has been actively countering Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk, a region they have controlled since launching an unexpected attack over seven months ago.

As Ukrainian forces continue to concede territory in Kursk, it seems plausible that the Kremlin is indeed strategizing a new incursion in this direction. While the specific aims remain ambiguous, some experts speculate that Russia could aim for Sumy to compel Kyiv to allocate resources to this new front, thereby undermining its stance in peace negotiations.

On March 12, Ukrainian troops retreated from Sudzha, the largest urban center in Kursk that they had occupied, abandoning the area to fall back to Sumy. Currently, only minor territories near the Russian-Ukrainian border seem to be maintained by Ukrainian control.

Russian officials have touted the reclaiming of Kursk region territories as a significant triumph more than three years into a conflict that many initially believed would be resolved in just days.

During a visit to the Kursk region last week, President Vladimir Putin suggested the establishment of a «buffer zone» in the Sumy area to protect Kursk from potential future assaults.

In the wake of his comments, there were reports hinting at a potential Russian offensive in this direction. Earlier in the month, Russian troops executed minor incursions into the Sumy region, seemingly targeting critical supply routes.

Ukrainian forces have previously reported encountering small reconnaissance and sabotage groups along the border, yet there have been no significant breakthroughs thus far.

As Ukraine retreats from Kursk, analyst Oleksiy Hetman indicated that Russia has dispatched additional forces, including mechanized brigades and artillery units, to the border in preparation for a significant offensive.

«The units currently stationed there include airborne, air assault, and marine forces. It’s likely they will attempt to advance toward Sumy and penetrate our territory from the north. Whether they will succeed remains to be seen, but we can expect attempts,» Hetman stated on Sunday.

Conversely, military analyst Ivan Stupak contended that there are currently no indications from either Ukrainian intelligence or open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts that suggest preparations for a large-scale invasion of Sumy.

“At this stage, no one can assert that Russia has assembled a 200,000-strong military contingent deep within its territory ready to invade tomorrow,” Stupak told The Moscow Times. “The veracity of Zelensky’s claim about an impending invasion is still under debate.»

Meanwhile, new confrontations have been reported in the border regions. On Tuesday, pro-Russian military Telegram accounts reported an attempted incursion by Ukrainian forces from Sumy into Russia’s Belgorod region, adjacent to Kursk.

Later, Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed the alleged offensive in Belgorod, asserting that it had been successfully repelled.

Additionally, various Russian military Telegram channels shared multiple videos of drone strikes targeting Ukrainian military assets.

The offensive forces likely include Ukrainian troops who had previously retreated from Kursk, as indicated by the unique markings on their armored vehicles. However, these attacks have not yet yielded substantial outcomes.

«In this section of Belgorod, there are no significant targets for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The terrain is predominantly empty — composed of fields and forests,» stated Russian military analyst Yan Matveev on his Telegram channel.

“I continue to believe this is a diversionary action by Ukraine. They may have anticipated that the border defenses were as weak as they had been previously, hoping to breach deeply into the area and force the Russian military to shift substantial forces away from Kursk. However, as observed, the operation has not succeeded,” Matveev noted.

Stupak suggested that the incursion into Belgorod may have been intended to divert Russia’s focus away from Sumy. He mentioned that the Russian forces along the Kursk-Sumy border could number as many as 60,000, although a significant portion of them is likely occupied with logistical and support tasks.

According to Stupak, a possible Russian offensive on Sumy would aim to engage Ukrainian forces that are already grappling with manpower shortages, inflict additional damage on Ukraine, and make deeper inroads into its territory. He argues that even a small piece of Sumy under Russian control could serve as leverage in future peace discussions.

«They will strive to hold the territory, establish occupation administrations, attempt to annex it to Russia, and use it as another bargaining tool in political negotiations,» he said.

Simultaneously, Ukraine seems to be bolstering its defenses in Sumy.

In March 2024, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reported the construction of concrete shelters for military personnel, along with anti-tank barriers and trenches. The precise locations and extent of these fortifications have yet to be disclosed.

A Ukrainian soldier involved in the fortification efforts informed the TSN news outlet that these structures are often erected further inland away from the border due to challenging terrain and Russian attacks on construction equipment.

On May 10, 2024, Russian forces launched an attack on Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, which borders Sumy, managing to capture parts of its territory. Ukraine had previously constructed defenses in that area, but some remained unfinished, leading to public criticism within Ukraine.

«Fortifications are Ukraine’s Achilles’ heel. We have been making the same errors for three years. Either they are built in suitable locations but poorly, or they are constructed well but in unsuitable areas, or the concrete fortifications are inadequately thick. Information about these fortifications is classified, so we can only hope they are present in Sumy,» Stupak remarked.

This isn’t the first instance of Russian focus on Ukraine’s Sumy region. Russian troops advanced into the area during the initial weeks of their full-scale invasion in February 2022. Despite early successes, however, Russian forces failed to secure control due to substantial Ukrainian resistance, leading the Kremlin to withdraw by early April 2022 as part of a broader retreat from northern Ukraine.

Stupak pointed out that should Russia launch another offensive on Sumy, it will confront a well-prepared Ukrainian force, benefiting from intelligence support, including assistance from Washington, which has recently resumed intelligence sharing with Kyiv.

Unlike in 2022, large movements of armored vehicles are now nearly impossible, as vast convoys have become easy targets for drones.

«Drones have transformed the nature of warfare: they create ‘kill zones’ in which anything that moves is annihilated instantly. Ukraine has learned from the 2022 experience when Russian forces moved through Sumy, making such scenarios unlikely to recur,» Stupak concluded.