CoinShares: Квантовые угрозы для биткоина преувеличены, реальный риск составляет лишь 10 200 BTC Translation: CoinShares: Quantum Threats to Bitcoin Overstated, Real Risk Only 10,200 BTC

The advancement of quantum computing does not pose an immediate threat to the first cryptocurrency. This is highlighted in a report by CoinShares.

The company described the issue as a «predictable engineering challenge» rather than a crisis.

Christopher Bendiksen, the head of research at CoinShares, criticized popular assessments of the network’s vulnerability. Previously, researchers at Chaincode Labs suggested that between 20% and 50% of all coins were at risk of hacking. CoinShares argues that these figures mix different categories of threats, thus distorting the actual situation.

According to the company, the real risk is confined to outdated P2PK addresses with publicly visible keys. Approximately 1.6 million BTC (8% of the total supply) are stored in these addresses. The amount held in wallets that could genuinely destabilize the market is merely 10,200 BTC.

The remaining coins in the risk group are distributed across 32,000 addresses with an average balance of 50 BTC. Hacking them would require far too much time, even under the most optimistic technological scenarios.

The report’s authors emphasized the limitations of current quantum computers. To crack a public key within a day, a system with 13 million physical qubits would be necessary—100,000 times more powerful than the most advanced machines available today.

“Google’s Willow has only 105 qubits. Every additional qubit exponentially complicates maintaining the system’s stability,” explained Ledger’s CTO, Charles Guillemet.

It’s worth noting that in January, analyst James Check stated that the primary reason for the weakness of the first cryptocurrency was large-scale selling by long-term holders, not concerns surrounding quantum computing.

Later, Benchmark experts described the threat to Bitcoin as «long-term» and «manageable.»