Трамп предлагает Кевина Уорша на пост главы ФРС, князя криптовалютной экономики Translation: Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, the prince of the cryptocurrency economy

On January 30, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as the next head of the Federal Reserve, whose term concludes in May.

The politician expressed that he has known Warsh for a long time and has «no doubt» that he will be remembered as «one of the greatest Federal Reserve chairs.»

*»Perhaps even the best,»* Trump added.

The day before, prediction markets assessed the likelihood of this outcome at over 95%. In the past 24 hours, Warsh’s chances of being selected have *skyrocketed* by 68% on Polymarket.

Kevin Warsh is an American financier and banking executive who served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011.

During and following the 2008 financial crisis, he acted as a crucial link between the Fed and Wall Street.

Warsh also represented the Federal Reserve in the Group of Twenty (G20) and served as an emissary for the Board of Governors in various Asian countries, both emerging and developed economies.

Before that, he held the post of Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Executive Secretary of the National Economic Council at the White House.

*“Markets largely view Warsh’s potential return as a bearish signal for Bitcoin. His emphasis on monetary discipline, high real rates, and reduced liquidity paints a picture of cryptocurrency not as a hedge against fiat depreciation, but as a speculative excess that fades with the end of the era of cheap money,”* said Marcus Tilton, founder of 10x Research.

Higher real interest rates reflect the actual cost of borrowed funds adjusted for inflation. This «real» rate significantly influences financial decisions. When it rises, businesses and investors typically reduce investments in riskier assets, including Bitcoin.

Warsh’s background only heightens concerns. During the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, while the world economy teetered on the brink of deflation, he continued to warn about inflationary risks:

Many experts agree that such a hardline stance and the dismissal of deflation risks exacerbated the crisis.

*“Had his approach been implemented, it would likely have led to rising unemployment, slower recovery, and increased deflationary risks in the 2010s,”* Tilton noted.

Warsh’s potential appointment appears paradoxical: his reputation as a monetary «hawk» directly contradicts Trump’s reflationary and risk-seeking agenda.

The President has consistently and harshly criticized Jerome Powell—often resorting to personal insults—for maintaining high rates. According to Trump, this «kills» the economy.

Trump emphasizes the need for rapid and substantial cuts, urging a drop in rates to around 1% from the current 3.5-3.7%.

Consequently, many experts doubt that Warsh is a suitable candidate for the Fed, which is expected to adhere closely to the White House’s agenda.

*“Kevin Warsh has been a monetary ‘hawk’ throughout his career, and critically—during a time when the labor market was in ruins. His current ‘dovish’ rhetoric is a matter of convenience. The President risks being misled,”* warned analysts at Renaissance Macro Research.

Andreas Steno Larsen, founder of the research firm NowcastIQ, called Warsh a «convenient» candidate for Trump:

*“In my opinion, considering Warsh to be more of a ‘hawk’ compared to other candidates like Rick Rieder and Chris Waller is misguided. Warsh is very close to the Trump family, and I believe he has been endorsed precisely because Trump wants someone in this position with whom he has enough trust to really ‘control the agenda.’”*

Warsh is indeed closely associated with Trump’s circle. He is married to Jane Lauder, an heir to the Estée Lauder cosmetics empire. His father-in-law, billionaire Ronald Lauder, has been a long-time political ally of Trump.

Warsh maintains a significantly more favorable view of Bitcoin compared to Powell, who has largely ignored the role of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. economy.

In a July interview with the Hoover Institution, he *rejected* the notion that Bitcoin could undermine the Fed’s ability to manage the economy. According to Warsh, the asset can «provide market discipline»:

*“Bitcoin does not concern me. I view it as an important asset that can signal to policymakers when they are acting correctly or incorrectly. […] It is the latest and most sophisticated software that will enable us to do what was previously unattainable.”*

Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, referred to the Fed chair nominee as «the first Bitcoin-friendly chair of the Federal Reserve.»

Some also point out that Warsh’s positive influence on the industry is evidenced by his role as an advisor to Bitwise and as a business angel for several cryptocurrency projects.

However, critics do not see «a few positive words about Bitcoin» as a true reflection of his stance on digital assets. For example, a user by the handle George Bodine described Warsh as «part of the system.»

*“He was a member of the Fed Board of Governors during the global financial crisis and was involved in developing and implementing economic rescue measures. He is incredibly wealthy, and his family connections and personal interests ensure that this will come first for him, along with the goals of the Fed,”* the user highlighted.

Some have also urged participants in the crypto community not to overestimate Warsh’s statements, as he is actually neutral regarding cryptocurrencies, simply referring to Bitcoin as «new software.»

It is worth noting that in January, current Fed chair Jerome Powell *revealed* that the U.S. Department of Justice threatened him with criminal prosecution over testimonies given in Congress in June 2025.