Аналитики предупреждают о возможной капитуляции биткоин-инвесторов на фоне растущего давления и снижения уверенности Translation: Analysts warn of a potential capitulation among bitcoin investors amid rising pressure and declining confidence.

As the initial cryptocurrency surged to new heights, the key indicator aSOPR signaled a weakening bullish sentiment. This observation was made by CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente.

He noted that each peak in Bitcoin’s price was accompanied by increasingly premature profit-taking from investors, suggesting a decline in confidence with the latest wave of growth.

The metric tracked a downward trend in profit realization: market participants were more frequently exiting their positions as returns diminished.

Currently, aSOPR is closely following a descending channel. Each touchpoint on the upper boundary of the channel has coincide with local price peaks, while approaches to the lower limit have aligned with local troughs.

«This makes aSOPR not just a sentiment indicator but a tool for identifying pressure points in the market,» the expert commented.

At present, the digital gold is testing the lower boundary of this channel amid extreme fear in the market, with approximately one-third of all Bitcoin supply in a loss.

Historically, such conditions have created tactical buying opportunities ahead of short-term rebounds, the analyst emphasized. However, the market finds itself at a crossroads.

A loss of current levels, coupled with additional bearish indicators, could lead to a phase of capitulation. The downward peaks of aSOPR throughout the bull cycle indicate a weakening of «strong hands,» and a breach of current levels may trigger accelerated selling.

On January 30, Bitcoin briefly dropped to a local low near $81,100, while Ethereum fell to $2,700. The total market capitalization of crypto assets decreased by 5.6% in one day, amounting to $2.9 trillion.

At the time of writing, digital gold is trading around $82,800.

In the context of the market decline, spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered losses totaling $817 million. The latest daily outflow marked the largest since mid-November.

The decline in cryptocurrencies was triggered by downturns in the tech sector and precious metals. Microsoft shares plummeted by 12%, causing a domino effect across global markets.

CryptoQuant analyst using the pseudonym Darkfost noted that Bitcoin’s «relatively moderate correction» led to the liquidation of long positions totaling $300 million within a few hours. The largest amount was on Hyperliquid, where longs worth $87.1 million were closed.

«For comparison, on Binance, this figure was approximately three times lower at around $30 million. This indicates that many investors are still utilizing high leverage to gain market exposure, generating bursts of volatility, often exacerbated by cascading liquidations,» the expert highlighted.

However, risk appetite is returning, Darkfost declared. Currently, open interest on Binance stands at 123,500 BTC, which is 31% higher than the figure from October 10 at 93,600 BTC.

Another factor amplifying the correction has been liquidity conditions, global economist at Kraken Thomas Perfumo noted.

«Global liquidity, which has the most significant impact on crypto market dynamics, remains tight. Interest rates are just one component of the overall picture. At the same time, gold historically benefits from dollar weakness and continues to attract capital from risk-sensitive investors,» he stated.

Additional pressure was created by short-term positions. According to Kraken Vice President Matt Howell-Barbee, concerns over large expenditures by tech giants on AI have added nervousness to risk asset markets, contrasting with a clear risk-on sentiment evident at the week’s start.

«Credit spreads were already extremely tight, and markets were clearly positioned for risk ahead of this move. Bitcoin felt the repercussions: a wave of long liquidations pushed prices down. Failing to hold above the $83,500 level will shift focus to the $80,000 area,» the expert pointed out.

In addition to macroeconomic conditions, internal blockchain data indicates stress in a key sector—Bitcoin mining.

According to a weekly report from CryptoQuant, the cryptocurrency mining segment faced serious disruptions due to a powerful winter storm in the United States.

Extreme weather conditions forced several large operators to temporarily halt operations, triggering the sharpest decline in hash rate since October 2021.

The blockchain’s computing power dropped by about 12% compared to mid-November levels. Concurrently, amid the decline in Bitcoin’s price and slowing block generation, daily income for miners has fallen to an annual low of around $28 million, significantly undermining the industry’s profitability.

According to the latest data, recovery is now underway: hash rate and average block time are beginning to return to previous levels as the weather normalizes.

However, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards identified a worsening situation: production costs have fallen to $69,000, while electricity costs stand at $55,000.

«This widens the potential range for further price declines in the near term,» he emphasized.

Let us remember, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes suggested that Bitcoin may exit its sideways range if the Federal Reserve supports the Japanese bond market.