Headline: Standard Chartered: U.S. Banks Face Potential $500 Billion Drain from Stablecoins by 2028 Translated Text: Standard Chartered: U.S. Banks Face Potential $500 Billion Drain from Stablecoins by 2028

The outflow of deposits from American banks to stablecoins could reach $500 billion by the end of 2028, as reported by The Block, citing a report from Standard Chartered.

Analysts at the financial institution view the widespread adoption of stablecoins as an emerging structural risk for TradFi.

The projected amount represents about a third of the anticipated market capitalization of the sector, estimated at $2 trillion. This assessment aligns with a previous forecast by the bank regarding the potential transfer of $1 trillion in deposits from emerging markets to digital dollar equivalents.

Jeffrey Kendrick, the head of digital asset research, noted that risks are amplified as payment systems transition to blockchain technology. Moreover, uncertainties persist due to delays in the passage of the Clarity Act, which is essential for regulating the industry in the U.S.

«This issue has put major banks at odds with Coinbase,» the expert emphasized.

The exchange did not support the latest version of the legislation, as its new amendments undermine the meaning of issuing and holding stablecoins. Conversely, the head of Bank of America warned of risks to the traditional sector, suggesting that if interest accrual on such assets were allowed, banks could lose up to $6 trillion.

Standard Chartered believes that discussions in Washington merely reaffirm the notion that transparent regulation accelerates the widespread acceptance of new financial instruments.

In assessing the risks, analysts utilized the ratio of net interest income to total revenue. They believe this metric best reflects the consequences of capital outflows.

Kendrick explained that deposits form the basis of interest margins. Their shift to stablecoins would exert direct pressure on financial institutions’ revenues.

The study’s findings:

The report outlines factors that increase the risk of liquidity outflow. Major issuers—Tether and Circle—hold only a small portion of their reserves in bank accounts. This limits the return of capital to the traditional financial system.

According to Standard Chartered’s estimates, two-thirds of stablecoin demand originates from emerging markets, while developed markets account for only one-third. This imbalance is what drives the projected $500 billion loss for banks in the U.S. and other leading economies.

Kendrick warned about the uneven nature of the consequences. The resilience of specific banks will depend on their ability to restructure funding models and integrate with tokenized infrastructure.

In addition to a shrinking deposit base, analysts highlight threats to non-interest revenues related to the growth of the tokenized assets sector in the real world (RWA).

Currently, the supply of dollar-denominated stablecoins exceeds $300 billion. If Standard Chartered’s scenario unfolds, this figure could triple—by 2028, the market could approach $2 trillion.

It is worth noting that Tether has launched USAT, a federally regulated «stablecoin» for the U.S. market.