Рынок биткоина на распутье: активизация спящих монет и уход традиционных держателей Translation: Bitcoin Market at a Crossroads: Activation of Dormant Coins and Exit of Traditional Holders

In the context of a historic sell-off of old coins, Glassnode recorded a «fragile balance,” with a key support level at $81,100.

CryptoQuant analyst known as Kripto Mevsimi described the years 2024-2025 as a period of the «largest release» of the long-term supply of the first cryptocurrency in history.

The expert examined the revived supply metric for coins that had not moved in over two years. Current sales volumes of such assets have surpassed the figures observed during the bullish cycles of 2017 and 2021.

Historically, the activation of «dormant» bitcoins has coincided with sharp price spikes and an influx of speculative capital. However, the current activity is occurring amidst less market noise but affects significantly older coins.

According to the analyst, this indicates a structural rotation of capital, with early investors who had bet on the asset’s scarcity and self-custody exiting their positions. Bitcoins are transitioning to new participants whose decisions hinge on price, macroeconomic factors, and global liquidity.

Data from early 2026 showed a slowdown in sales compared to the peaks of the past two years, but a complete reversal of the trend has yet to occur, noted Kripto Mevsimi. Over the coming year, it will become clear whether this is a temporary sales exhaustion or the start of a new accumulation phase.

The on-chain structure of Bitcoin remains fragile. The price oscillates around key cost levels for coins, with persuasive signals for long-term accumulation lacking, as stated in Glassnode’s report.

Experts have highlighted a persistent supply overhang: recent buyers are creating resistance, limiting the growth potential. Short-term rallies are being utilized for profit-taking (distribution).

The market is operating in a state of moderate correction. Analysts have identified two crucial levels:

Attempts to establish a foothold above encounter selling from investors who accumulated positions in the first to third quarters of 2025. The current structure resembles the situation of early 2022 when repeated failures to break above the breakeven point for recent buyers prolonged the consolidation.

Main selling pressure is coming from participants who purchased coins 3-6 months ago. They are realizing losses as the price returns to their entry levels (above $110,000), seeking to mitigate risks.

Further pressure is exerted by a large supply cluster above $100,000, formed by long-term holders. Without a significant influx of new demand, these levels will remain challenging to breach.

Trader activity has also increased for securing minimal profits (0-20%). Market participants are leaning towards quick exits from positions with small premiums, without expecting the trend to continue.

The situation on spot exchanges has shown improvement. Binance and aggregated data indicate a return to buying activity. Coinbase, which had previously been a source of selling pressure, has reduced its activity, stabilizing prices.

However, corporate treasuries are taking a passive approach. Company flows are sporadic and hover around neutral values, providing no systemic support to the market.

Glassnode experts characterized the derivatives segment as a «ghost town»:

According to analysts, Bitcoin is finding its bottom not through an influx of new money, but due to a pause in sales. The market is in a state of low liquidity and awaits a catalyst capable of reigniting interest from major players.

It is worth noting that CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno reported that for the first time in history, the share of «new» whales in the realized capitalization of the first cryptocurrency has surpassed that of long-term holders.