JPMorgan предсказывает рост капитала в криптовалюты под влиянием институциональных инвесторов в 2026 году Translation: JPMorgan predicts an influx of capital into cryptocurrencies driven by institutional investors in 2026.

Arthur Hayes anticipates a Bitcoin rally amid increasing dollar liquidity

In 2026, the inflow of capital into cryptocurrencies is expected to continue on an upward trajectory. This growth will primarily be driven by institutional investors, according to analysts from JPMorgan, as reported by The Block.

The bank’s experts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, indicated that in 2025, the amount of inflows could reach a record $130 billion, marking a 30% increase compared to 2024 figures.

The passing of the Clarity Act in the United States will play a pivotal role. Clear regulations are expected to stimulate interest in venture financing, mergers, and acquisitions. A revival is anticipated in sectors such as stablecoins, payments, infrastructure, and custodial solutions.

The previous year was dominated by retail investors. Growth was driven by inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, as well as purchases by firms utilizing digital assets as reserves (DAT). In contrast, hedge fund activity via futures on the CME saw a noticeable decline compared to 2024.

DAT companies accounted for more than half of all inflows, approximately $68 billion. Of this, $23 billion came from Strategy (compared to $22 billion the previous year). Other market participants invested $45 billion into digital assets, significantly surpassing the $8 billion from the preceding period.

However, starting from October, this trend has slowed down. Major holders such as Strategy and BitMine reduced their purchasing volumes by the year’s end.

Venture financing has seen only slight growth, failing to return to the highs of 2021-2022. Investors redirected capital once intended for startups into more liquid DAT strategies, resulting in a drop in the overall number of deals.

Analysts noted that the period of risk reduction has come to an end. Investors’ contraction of positions at the close of 2025 is behind us, and the market is showing signs of stabilization in ETF flows and other indicators.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes published an essay analyzing the causes of Bitcoin’s weak performance in 2025, amidst rising gold prices and stocks in the tech sector. He believes that the situation will shift in 2026, driven by a «forced injection» of dollar liquidity into the US economy.

Hayes pointed out that Bitcoin, which depends on monetary expansion, reacted predictably to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction. In contrast, gold experienced a historic surge, despite declining liquidity.

The rally for the precious metal was attributed to central banks. Regulators are aggressively purchasing physical gold, moving away from US Treasury bonds. Hayes connected this to sovereign states’ concerns about the potential freezing of their assets, as seen with Russia’s reserves in 2022.

«Central banks are insensitive to pricing. If the US president can seize your funds, their value can evaporate instantly. In such scenarios, the purchase price of gold becomes irrelevant if it mitigates counterparty risk,» he wrote.

Hayes explained the rise of the Nasdaq index, particularly among companies in the artificial intelligence sector, as a form of «nationalization» of the industry.

Following Donald Trump’s campaign program, US authorities are funneling capital into AI to maintain technological leadership over China. This creates a situation where the tech sector receives funding regardless of actual returns or overall credit market conditions. Such government support has allowed stocks to lose correlation with the declining liquidity of the dollar.

The founder of Maelstrom believes that in 2026, dollar liquidity will begin to grow aggressively for three reasons:

Hayes is confident that with the influx of liquidity, Bitcoin will resume its upward trend. For bullish plays, he has chosen stocks of DAT companies Strategy and Metaplanet.

According to the expert’s calculations, the ratio of these stocks’ prices to the Bitcoin they hold is currently at a two-year low. He anticipates that if the price of digital gold returns to $110,000, these stocks will show superior returns thanks to built-in leverage.

Additionally, the Maelstrom fund continues to build its position in Zcash, viewing the departure of developers from the ECC as a positive signal for the development of commercial products based on the coin.

As a reminder, Glassnode reported that institutional investors have resumed Bitcoin purchases in response to risks of explosive volatility.