Скачивания мессенджера BitChat достигли рекорда на фоне протестов в Иране Translation: Headline: Downloads of the BitChat messenger hit a record against the backdrop of protests in Iran.

The likelihood of the country’s leader being overthrown has surpassed 50% on Polymarket.

In light of ongoing mass unrest, Iranian authorities have restricted internet access. In response, the community has urged residents to utilize the encrypted messenger BitChat, supported by Jack Dorsey.

According to Chromestats, the number of downloads for the app surged by 43,000 in just the past day, and by 437,900 over the week. However, it remains unclear how many of these downloads originated from Iran.

Previously, the messenger garnered significant attention in Nepal and Indonesia amid protests against the ruling governments in those nations.

BitChat operates without requiring an internet connection: every Bluetooth device within the network functions as both a client and a repeater, transmitting encrypted messages over distances of up to 30 meters.

High-speed internet and communication can also be provided by Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites. Users have called on the billionaire to deploy equipment in Iran, a move he already undertook during protests in June.

Reports suggest that Musk has responded to these requests.

Users on Polymarket estimate the probability of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s overthrow at 55%. This figure has increased by 20% over the past day.

The total volume of bets has exceeded $559,000.

This sharp rise has been fueled by widespread protests and warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding potential strikes if the demonstrations are suppressed violently. The death toll from the unrest has already surpassed 45 individuals.

Earlier in January, traders assessed the likelihood of Khamenei stepping down at below 40%.

In a related market with a total betting volume of $2.5 million, the situation is as follows:

The community previously criticized Polymarket for refusing to acknowledge U.S. actions in Venezuela as «invasions.» The money turnover in the contentious contract reached $10.5 million.

Suspicions of insider trading have also sparked debate. One user reportedly made over $400,000, with their account being created just days before the U.S. special operation.

The situation has attracted the attention of authorities: Congressman Ritchie Torres proposed a bill prohibiting insiders from trading on prediction markets.

At the time of writing, the user’s profile has become unavailable. It is unclear whether it was deliberately deactivated by the Polymarket team or if the trader deleted the account themselves.

Meanwhile, analysts at Lookonchain have noted suspicious activity surrounding another market where users evaluate the likelihood of U.S. strikes against Iran.

Four new wallets placed bets on a «Yes» outcome at odds of 18%. Experts have noted that no other trading activity from these addresses has been recorded on the platform.

However, users discovered inaccuracies in Lookonchain’s information: one of the mentioned accounts does have a history on Polymarket, having previously participated in predictions related to meme coins.

It’s worth recalling that in late December, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley referred to Bitcoin as a salvation from economic collapse in Iran.