Анализ устойчивости биткоина в условиях конфликта США и Венесуэлы Translation: Analysis of Bitcoins Resilience Amidst the US-Venezuela Conflict

The likelihood of a significant correction in the cryptocurrency market due to the conflict between the United States and Venezuela is extremely low, according to Michael van de Poppe, the founder of MN Trading.

«This is a well-coordinated and planned attack on [Venezuelan President] Nicolás Maduro, and it has been in the works for a long time,» the expert explained.

Van de Poppe predicts that Bitcoin will soon surpass the $90,000 mark. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at approximately $91,500, with a daily increase of 2%.

On January 3, the U.S. struck Venezuela. The attack lasted around 30 minutes, resulting in Maduro being captured and taken out of the country.

Initially, Bitcoin reacted to the situation with a slight dip but then resumed its upward trajectory.

«Market fluctuations are typically influenced by uncertainty rather than past events. In this case, it seems that much of this has already been factored into the price,» noted crypto analyst Shagun Makin.

He also emphasized that Bitcoin’s ability to remain stable amid «geopolitical noise» is more likely to enhance demand above $90,000 rather than undermine it.

«This situation might even bring some gains to the market as people interpret it as a sign of strength,» analyst Tyler Hill added.

Researchers from Lookonchain detected suspicious activity on Polymarket. According to their findings, just hours before Maduro’s arrest, three wallets placed bets that the Venezuelan president would step down.

Their total profit from these trades exceeded $630,000, with one wallet investing $34,000 and returning $409,900.

«All three addresses placed bets solely on events related to Venezuela and Maduro and exhibited no history of other trades—an obvious sign of insider trading,» reported Lookonchain.

Simultaneously, one trader on Polymarket using the alias Sweetceecks claimed to have earned $80,000 in one night by wagering on the ousting of the Venezuelan president.

He mentioned he noticed an uptick in the «pizza index» and decided to place a bet. This index reflects the number of orders from the nearest Domino’s Pizza outlets located near the Pentagon, which is considered an indirect indicator of increased activity from U.S. armed forces.

It is worth noting that by the end of 2025, retail investors surpassed whales in terms of Bitcoin accumulation rates.