Cantor Fitzgerald: «Криптозима» станет трамплином для институционального роста в криптоиндустрии Translation: Cantor Fitzgerald: Crypto Winter Will Be a Springboard for Institutional Growth in the Crypto Industry

The digital asset market appears to be entering the early stages of a protracted downturn. However, according to Brett Knoblauch, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald investment bank, this phase will merely serve as a prelude to a more stable and institutional phase of industry development.

He notes that the sector is currently in the initial phase of a «winter,» following the historical four-year cycle of Bitcoin. Approximately 85 days have passed since the price peak, and pressure on valuations could persist for months. There is even a possibility of testing the break-even level for Strategy around $75,000.

This current decline is characterized by a lack of mass liquidations and structural disruptions, which distinguishes it from previous downturns. The market is now shaped not by retail traders, but rather by institutional players. Knoblauch pointed out the widening gap between token prices and actual infrastructure development, particularly in the DeFi and Real World Assets (RWA) sectors.

The volume of tokenized real-world assets has tripled over the year, reaching $18.5 billion. Cantor Fitzgerald predicts that by 2026, this figure will exceed $50 billion as on-chain transactions are adopted by banks. Decentralized exchanges, especially in the perpetual futures segment, are expected to continue gaining market share from centralized platforms, even amid a general decline in trading volumes.

The analyst also observed growth in prediction markets, with the betting volume in the sports segment surpassing $5.9 billion. Companies like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini have already entered this niche, offering more transparent mechanisms compared to traditional bookmakers.

The primary risk remains the price of the leading cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s price is currently only 17% above the average purchase price for Strategy. A dip below this threshold could alarm market participants, although Knoblauch doubts that the company will start liquidating assets.

According to the expert, the coming year is unlikely to witness explosive growth but should lay the groundwork for long-term technological adoption.

Several experts believe that the traditional four-year cycle of the leading cryptocurrency has been disrupted. Factors cited include the launch of spot ETFs, easing regulations in the U.S., changes in leadership at the Federal Reserve, and increased global liquidity.

Nik Rak, Director of LVRG Research, stated that historical periodicity began to unravel in 2025. Continuous demand from funds and corporations has smoothed volatility and prevented the deep plunges typically seen in previous years. The analyst anticipates consolidation but predicts continued growth in 2026.

A similar view is held by Grayscale and Standard Chartered. Grayscale expects a new historical peak in the first half of 2026, while Standard Chartered calls the cycle theory «invalid» and sets a Bitcoin target at $150,000.

Marcus Thielen, head of 10x Research, believes that digital gold entered a bear market as early as late October 2025, becoming the first risk asset to respond to economic slowdowns.

Analyst PlanB highlighted the psychological aspect: sales are driven by «traumatized by 2021» market veterans who habitually expect declines two years post-halving.

Expert Alex Weissy added that the cycle is not broken but extended: the absence of alt-season and euphoria «induces boredom» but does not signify the end of growth.

It is worth noting that in December, traders assessed the probability of a «crypto winter» at 7%. Later, analysts from CryptoQuant warned of the onset of a bear market, predicting a bottom at around $56,000.