Cantor Fitzgerald: Падение крипторынка предвещает рост институциональных инвесторов Translation: Cantor Fitzgerald: The Decline of the Crypto Market Foreshadows Growth for Institutional Investors

The digital asset market is likely entering the early stage of a protracted downturn. However, this phase will serve merely as a prelude to a more stable and institutional maturation of the industry, believes analyst Brett Knoblauch from investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald.

According to him, the segment has entered an early «winter» phase, following Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle. Approximately 85 days have passed since the peak price, and pressure on valuations could persist for months. A test of the breakeven point for Strategy at around $75,000 is not off the table.

This current decline is distinguished from previous downturns by the lack of mass liquidations and structural failures. The market is now being shaped not by retail traders but by institutional players. Knoblauch pointed out the widening gap between token prices and actual infrastructure development, especially within the DeFi and RWA sectors.

The volume of tokenized real-world assets has tripled over the past year, reaching $18.5 billion. Cantor Fitzgerald anticipates this figure will exceed $50 billion by 2026, driven by the adoption of on-chain settlements by banks. Decentralized exchanges, particularly in the perpetual futures segment, will continue to capture market share from centralized platforms, even amidst an overall decline in trading volumes.

The analyst also noted a surge in prediction markets, with betting volumes in the sports segment surpassing $5.9 billion. This niche has already attracted entrants such as Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini, all of which offer more transparent mechanisms compared to traditional bookmakers.

The primary risk remains the price of the first cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s price is only 17% above the average purchase price for Strategy. A drop below this threshold could alarm market participants, although Knoblauch doubts that the company will start selling assets.

In the expert’s view, the coming year is unlikely to witness explosive growth, but it will lay the groundwork for the long-term acceptance of technologies.

Several experts believe that the conventional four-year cycle of the first cryptocurrency has been disrupted. The reasons cited include the launch of spot ETFs, a softening of regulations in the U.S., changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and an increase in global liquidity.

Director of LVRG Research, Nick Rack, stated that the historical periodicity began to unravel in 2025. Consistent demand from funds and corporations has dampened volatility and prevented the deep crashes typical of previous years. The analyst anticipates consolidation but forecasts continued growth in 2026.

Similar sentiments are echoed by Grayscale and Standard Chartered. Grayscale predicts a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, while Standard Chartered deems the cycle theory «invalid» and aims for a Bitcoin price of $150,000.

Marcus Tylin, head of 10x Research, believes that digital gold entered a bear market as early as late October 2025, becoming the first risky asset to respond to an economic slowdown.

PlanB highlighted the psychological factor: sales are being driven by «traumatized by 2021» market veterans, who, out of habit, expect a downturn two years after a halving.

Expert Alex Wacey added that the cycle is not broken but elongated: the absence of an alt-season and euphoria leads to «boredom» but doesn’t signify the end of growth.

It is worth recalling that in December, traders assessed the probability of a «crypto winter» at 7%. Later, analysts from CryptoQuant warned of the onset of a bear market, with a bottom expected around the $56,000 level.