Нарастающая напряженность на Deribit: Опционы на $28,5 млрд могут принести убытки трейдерам Translation: Growing Tension on Deribit: $28.5 Billion Options May Lead to Trader Losses

As the annual expiration of $28.5 billion contracts approaches on the Deribit exchange, trader optimism is waning. A significant amount of call options, valued at $21.7 billion, is at risk of becoming worthless.

Investors had anticipated that Bitcoin would remain above $100,000, but the performance in November has fallen short of expectations. According to the exchange, only 6% of open positions have a strike price of $92,000 or lower; the remaining bets are far from the current market price.

There is also a notable concentration of positions within the range of $100,000 to $125,000.

The critical “pain point” is at $95,000, the level where holders would face the largest losses.

Trader optimism is buoyed by expectations of further easing of macroeconomic policy in the U.S. Over the past week, they have increased open interest in call options with strikes between $90,000 and $120,000, expiring at the end of the year.

Bearish positions are also vulnerable. The strike prices of a significant portion of put options are concentrated between $75,000 and $86,000. If Bitcoin remains above $88,000 by the expiration date, more than half of these contracts worth $7.7 billion would become worthless.

As long as the price stays below $94,000, sellers retain the upper hand. At the time of writing, the asset is trading around $87,800.

On December 26, options contracts for the second-largest cryptocurrency, valued at $3.7 billion, will also expire. There are twice as many bets on growth as there are on decline.

Most call options are at risk of losing value—traders have bet on Ethereum rallying to $3,500-$5,000 by year-end.

Less than 15% of these growth bets are placed at a more realistic level of $3,000 or lower. This is also where the maximum pain point lies.

Meanwhile, bears expect the asset to drop to the $2,000-$2,500 range, where a significant portion of put options is concentrated.

Even here, the balance of power favors sellers—as long as Ethereum’s price remains below $3,200. At the time of writing, the coin is trading around $2,900.

It’s worth noting that analysts from Wintermute have highlighted the concentration of capital in Bitcoin and Ethereum.