Крипторынок на грани истощения: эксперты указывают на падение биткоина и отсутствие ликвидности Translation: Cryptocurrency market on the brink of exhaustion: experts point to Bitcoins decline and lack of liquidity

Analysts have identified potential reasons for Bitcoin’s decline and outlined short-term outlooks.

While other markets are on the rise, cryptocurrencies are stagnating due to a complete lack of liquidity. According to Clouted, co-founder of the ETH Strategy protocol, something seems to have broken in the sector after the October crash.

*»Since October 10, something serious has been happening. We deserve honest answers, not just speculations and rumors. There has been no liquidity or demand in the crypto market since then, only continuous sell-offs,»* he stated.

The expert emphasized that quantitative easing has returned, but inflows into digital assets have not. Meanwhile, the stock market and precious metals are experiencing another rally.

In the last 24 hours, the S&P 500 has risen by nearly 0.64%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.52%. Analysts from The Kobeissi Letter noted a strong appetite among investors for American stocks.

On December 23, gold hit a historic peak of $4,500 per ounce, with prices soaring by 70% over the year.

In sharp contrast, the situation within the cryptocurrency market is troubling: Bitcoin’s price has dropped by 2.7% in the past 24 hours and is currently trading around $87,600. Year-to-date, this represents a decline of 6.3%.

Ethereum has again fallen below the psychologically significant level of $3,000, and all top-10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization are in the «red zone.»

The overall market capitalization of digital assets has decreased by 2.3% in the last day, now standing at $3.05 trillion.

Clouted pointed out a paradox: while the global trend of betting against fiat currencies is gaining traction, cryptocurrencies—often regarded as key protective assets—continue their downward trend.

*»How is it even possible for an asset class whose main value proposition is protection against devaluation to behave this way? It baffles me,»* he noted.

Analysts from QCP also mentioned the liquidity depletion, attributing it to traders closing positions ahead of the holidays.

Open interest in Bitcoin futures on major exchanges dropped by $3 billion overnight, while Ethereum-based products saw a decrease of approximately $2 billion.

*»Although leveraged positions have decreased, the shrinking market depth indicates an elevated risk of price movement in either direction. Historically, Bitcoin tends to experience fluctuations of 5-7% during the Christmas period,»* the experts added.

CryptoQuant analysts explained that Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq began to diverge in August and its follow-through with gold ceased around July.

*»Bitcoin no longer moves in sync with either tech stocks or safe-haven assets,»* they remarked.

They added that major players are negatively impacting the dynamics of digital gold by continuing to offload assets. Persistent sell pressure from whales has not ceased since October.

In November, $3.4 billion was withdrawn from spot Bitcoin ETFs, and $440 million was withdrawn in the partial month of December.

*»Capital is flowing into safe havens like gold and silver, while stocks are rising amid hype surrounding AI companies. Bitcoin is caught in between: on one side, there’s selling pressure; on the other, a lack of strong demand for risky assets,»* the specialists commented.

The realized losses for large investors have been one of the driving forces behind Bitcoin’s price drop from $124,000 to $84,000. However, CryptoQuant stated that their selling has largely come to an end.

QCP added that the increased volatility in the crypto market could also be linked to the expiration of options worth $28.5 billion on the Deribit exchange on December 26, which is double the figure from last year.

Analysis of open interest distribution shows two key concentration points: strikes at $85,000 and puts at $100,000.

In addition to the impact of options, the holiday season could also exert downward pressure on prices due to tax optimization practices. Investors often realize losses before the fiscal year ends on December 31 to minimize their tax liabilities, QCP explained.

Pequinio characterized the structure as a sign of «residual optimism» regarding the traditional «Santa Claus rally,» even if participants’ confidence seems low. This is also reflected in the dynamics of average funding rates, which have risen from 0.04% to 0.09%.

According to a Deribit representative, the increase indicates a renewed influx of long positions utilizing leverage, despite a noticeable decline in market depth.

Experts agree that price movements during the Christmas week often have a technical nature. Historically, they tend to revert to mean values in January when liquidity and market activity return to normal.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe described Bitcoin’s bounce off $90,000 as «not an unfavorable sign for now.» He noted that traders are looking to convert the $86,000 mark into support, which would provide «ample grounds for continuing the battle against key resistance zones.»

The expert referred to the cryptocurrency market’s lag behind other sectors as «temporary.»

It is worth mentioning that specialists from VanEck have pointed to miner capitulation and the potential bottom for Bitcoin.