Аналитики VanEck замечают волны капитуляции майнеров и предупреждают о критической ситуации для биткоина Translation: Analysts at VanEck note waves of miner capitulation and warn of a critical situation for Bitcoin

From November 15 to December 15, the hashrate of the leading cryptocurrency network experienced a 4% decline. Historically, miner capitulation serves as a bullish signal for the asset’s price, as highlighted by analysts from VanEck.

“The longer the pressure on the hash rate persists, the higher the likelihood and magnitude of subsequent yield growth,” they noted.

According to specialists, since 2014, the 90-day performance of Bitcoin has been positive 65% of the time when the network’s hashrate decreased in the preceding 30 days. In contrast, during periods of hashrate growth over the same timeframe, profitability was observed only 54% of the time.

This trend remains consistent even over longer periods. When examining 180-day yield, Bitcoin appreciated in 77% of cases following a 90-day reduction in hashrate, with an average increase of 72%. This surpasses the 61% positive outcome seen during comparable periods of rising hashrate.

VanEck analysts believe this trend is also advantageous for miners. The subsequent increase in the price of digital gold could enhance margins for current participants and reinstate previously unprofitable equipment.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $87,100, having decreased by 2% in the past 24 hours.

Experts characterized the current 4% decline in hashrate as “the most significant” since April 2024.

The Hash Ribbons indicator also signals miner capitulation, as the 30-day moving average of hashrate fell below the 60-day measurement. However, a bottom has yet to be reached.

Analysts emphasized that Bitcoin is approaching a critical juncture, where the economic viability of the entire mining infrastructure is in jeopardy. Two factors are pressuring miners:

To maintain their market share, miners are compelled to continually invest in new and more efficient equipment. The only solution is a stable increase in the price of the first cryptocurrency, which needs to offset the decline in emissions and rising operational costs.

However, the coin’s quotes have been trending sideways for several months, severely impacting the industry. A striking indicator of this is the reduction in the breakeven threshold.

While in December 2024, a miner using an outdated Bitmain S19 XP model required electricity at a rate no higher than $0.12 per kWh to break even, by mid-December 2025, this level had dropped to $0.077.

It is worth noting that in early December, experts from TheMinerMag reported on the most serious profit crisis in Bitcoin mining.