«Крипторынок теряет волатильность: возможности для альтсезона тают» Translation: Cryptomarket Loses Volatility: Opportunities for Altseason Fade

The cryptocurrency market is currently lacking the volatility needed to kick off a full-fledged altcoin season. This was stated by Saad Ahmed, head of the Asia-Pacific division of the Gemini exchange, in an interview with DL News.

According to him, the previous excitement among retail traders, which had been the main driver for the growth of alternative coins, is no longer observed on the trading platform.

«Investors used to lock in incredible profits, but we aren’t seeing that now. Much of the retail frenzy was a result of this market characteristic, which is now absent,» the expert explained.

Prior bullish phases were marked by high volatility and typically began with a Bitcoin rally. After securing profits, traders would reallocate their capital to riskier assets such as Ethereum and Solana.

Now, the landscape has changed: institutional investors with «long-term horizons» have taken the lead in the market. Their presence dampens price fluctuations and slows down the movement of capital into altcoins.

Gracy Chen, the CEO of Bitget, confirmed this trend, stating, «Traders dealing in alternative coins are facing a terrible risk-reward ratio following the collapse of October 10-11. Let’s be realistic—an alt season won’t occur in 2025 or 2026.»

Ahmed noted the shift of risk-taking retail traders’ capital into the stock market. This transition has been facilitated by digital asset trusts (DAT) — public companies specifically established for accumulating digital assets, often using financial leverage.

Over the past year, the stocks of such companies have exhibited volatility comparable to high-risk crypto investments.

For instance, shares of Cantor Equity Partners — a SPAC that became a Bitcoin treasury named Twenty One Capital after a merger — skyrocketed by around 500% following the announcement of its transformation.

Stocks of SharpLink Gaming, which revealed its strategy for accumulating Ethereum this summer, soared by 3800%.

However, this rapid ascent was followed by a correction. Twenty One Capital’s shares ended their debut session down by 20%. SharpLink is now trading 60% lower than its peak.

Despite the lack of retail enthusiasm, interest in crypto assets remains robust, primarily driven by institutional investors. Experts have not ruled out the possibility of private traders returning to the market, but they emphasize that until that happens, high volatility and the beginning of a traditional altcoin season should not be expected.

Gemini has obtained a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch a regulated platform for placing bets on event outcomes.

The new platform, named Gemini Titan, may expand its offerings to include other derivative instruments such as futures, options, and perpetual cryptocurrency contracts.

This decision marks a strategic shift in the CFTC’s stance, which had previously been skeptical of prediction markets. In 2021, the Commission blocked Polymarket and restricted American users’ access to Kalshi for an extended period.

The situation changed following a legal victory for the latter project and changes in the leadership of the agency. Caroline Pham was appointed as the interim chairperson, with Cameron Winklevoss, president of Gemini, describing her as friendly towards the crypto industry.

Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket are the leading players in this segment. In November, the combined trading volume of these platforms approached $10 billion, reaching an all-time high since their inception.

It’s worth noting that cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase is preparing to enter the prediction market. At the end of November, similar plans were revealed by Galaxy Digital’s founder, Mike Novogratz.