Спекулятивные движения на рынке биткоин-фьючерсов приводят к повышенной уязвимости Speculative Movements in Bitcoin Futures Market Lead to Increased Vulnerability

In 2025, the trading volume of Bitcoin futures reached an all-time high even before the year’s end. The market has become excessively reliant on speculative capital, according to CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost.

Binance remains the leader in this segment with a turnover exceeding $24 trillion. This figure is twice that of OKX ($11 trillion) and nearly twelve times the volumes of Hyperliquid (below $6 trillion).

Traders are widely utilizing leverage for quick profits, favoring it over spot purchases aimed at long-term investments. Interest in derivatives has grown across all platforms, thanks to improved trading interfaces and the listing of new assets.

The analyst believes that this trend has structurally changed the market, making it «mechanically more fragile.» Price movements are now dictated not by the supply and demand for real coins, but by cascading liquidations and a domino effect.

Darkfost recalled the October crash, when a wave of forced position liquidations rapidly broke through key support and resistance levels. The expert concluded that as long as leverage remains the primary driver of trading, Bitcoin’s price will continue to exhibit high volatility and unpredictability.

The cryptocurrency market has entered a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, as stated by XWIN Research.

Analysts have observed a decrease in the balances of the leading cryptocurrency on major trading platforms. Simultaneously, reserves in USDT and USDC are on the rise. This is a classic hedging signal: institutional investors are «moving to cash,» taking a cautious stance.

Experts noted similarities between the current situation and the period from August to October, when financing rates surged due to an influx of short-term traders betting on a pre-Fed meeting increase. Immediately after the regulator’s decision was announced, Bitcoin’s price fell, demonstrating a pattern of «rallying on expectations — plummeting on facts.»

Currently, experts are seeing similar signs of preparation among significant capital.

XWIN Research emphasized that regardless of the regulator’s decision, market volatility is set to spike this week. The primary recommendation is to prioritize risk management in advance, rather than attempting to catch a local bounce.

According to QCP Capital, the interest rate decision is already factored into prices, making Jerome Powell’s statement the main point of intrigue.

Due to a lack of recent macro data, the Fed is unlikely to provide clear signals regarding January. Market participants will closely monitor the press conference for any hints. Furthermore, long-term rates already reflect expectations of policy easing in 2026.

The next significant event will be the Bank of Japan’s meeting on December 19, experts noted. The yields on Japanese government bonds have reached multi-year highs: 10-year bonds are trading at 1.95% (the peak since 2007), while 30-year bonds are around 3.39%.

The rapid increase in yields is concerning officials. Any unexpected move from the regulator could trigger volatility in global markets.

The industry has «processed» the volatility, but a new trend has yet to emerge, concluded QCP. The key support remains the demand from corporate treasuries.

Notably, analysts at Wintermute highlighted the «narrowing» of the cryptocurrency market down to Bitcoin and Ethereum.