Аналитики Glassnode предупреждают о возможной коррекции биткоина в условиях текущей рыночной динамики Translation: Glassnode analysts warn of a potential Bitcoin correction amid current market dynamics.

The overall market structure increasingly resembles that of the first quarter of 2022, which preceded a significant correction. This was reported by analysts from Glassnode.

The similarity is supported by the cost basis quantile model, which monitors the entry prices of the largest clusters of coins. Since mid-November, Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the 0.75 quantile (approximately $96,100), resulting in around a quarter of the entire cryptocurrency supply being in a loss zone.

This situation has created a highly unstable equilibrium. On one hand, there’s a risk of capitulation among large holders; on the other, there’s a chance of seller exhaustion and the formation of a bottom.

The market’s resilience remains questionable until the price of digital gold can consolidate above the 0.85 quantile level (~$106,200), which has now become a critical resistance threshold. Until that point, any negative macroeconomic event could easily disrupt the «fragile balance.»

The proportion of coins in loss indicates significant pressure on the market. The seven-day moving average of this metric reached 7.1 million BTC last week, the highest level since September 2023. The volume of unrealized losses for investors is currently at its peak for two years of the bull market.

The current range of losing supply (5-7 million BTC) closely mirrors the figures from early 2022 when the market entered a prolonged sideways trend.

Despite this grim parallel, an important distinction is the sustained positive capital inflow. The net change in realized capitalization recorded an increase of $8.69 billion over the month.

Although this figure is below the summer peak of $64.3 billion, it explains why the price of the leading cryptocurrency finds support at key levels and remains above $90,000, experts noted.

The activity of long-term investors reflects a mixed picture. The SOPR index (30-day average) has decreased but remains above 1 (at 1.43). This indicates that they are still taking profits.

However, profit margins are narrowing, mirroring the dynamics at the beginning of 2022, prior to a prolonged sideways movement.

«While the momentum of demand is relatively stronger than at the beginning of 2022, liquidity continues to decline, making it crucial for bulls to maintain a level above the true market average until a new wave of demand arrives,» analysts highlighted.

Amidst active participation from institutional investors, many in the crypto community have expressed doubts about the relevance of the Bitcoin cycle theory, which suggests the cryptocurrency rises for three years and falls for one.

Analyst Axel Adler — junior analyst — still regards this pattern as the most reliable.

«We have spent the last three years rising from $16,000 to $125,000 without shocks like COVID, the collapses of Luna and FTX, and yet the discussions about the demise of the four-year cycle are growing louder. It’s amusing how easily people overlook Bitcoin’s most reliable pattern: three years up, one year down, consistently since 2009,» he remarked.

According to him, institutional demand remains an important aspect but does not change the fundamental rhythm of digital gold.

«BlackRock clients aren’t buying at any price; they experience the same emotions: FOMO, fear, and capitulation as everyone else. The sooner the market accepts this, the less likely it is to miss the next major move,» the expert emphasized.

Analysts at K33 have identified three main «fear narratives» that have dominated the media landscape recently. According to Vetle Lunde, head of research at the firm, these issues are either premature or their risks are exaggerated.

In contrast to short-term concerns, experts pointed to a series of emerging mid-term factors that could provide a strong foundation for growth.

In particular, by February 2026, U.S. regulators are expected to release new rules for 401(k) retirement savings that could potentially unlock a $9 trillion market for Bitcoin.

In the coming months, Congress is also expected to pass legislation on the structure of the crypto market — the CLARITY Act. This will expedite the tokenization of assets and could legalize the use of the first cryptocurrency as collateral within the banking system.

A shift in the rhetoric of the Federal Reserve may also favor digital assets. The leading candidate for the new chair of the Fed is Kevin Hassett, a cryptocurrency supporter.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $93,100. Over the past day, the asset’s price has increased by 0.6%, while over the week it has risen by 2.1%.

It’s worth noting that analysts from Glassnode and Fanara Digital have recorded a decrease in the volatility of the first cryptocurrency.