Трейдеры снижают оценки вероятности «криптозимы» до 7% Translation: Traders reduce the probability estimate of a crypto winter to 7%

Members of the community express skepticism about the prospect of a prolonged downturn in the cryptocurrency market. The likelihood of such a scenario on the prediction platform Myriad is assessed at 6.9%.

Myriad identifies the initiation of a drawn-out downward trend when three out of the following four conditions are met:

The last «glacial period» occurred from late 2021 to 2023, triggered by the burst of the bullish rally during the COVID-19 era and further exacerbated by the collapses of Terra/Luna and FTX.

During that time, digital gold plummeted roughly 75% — from an all-time high of around $69,000 to $16,000.

Amid the decline of Bitcoin to $85,000 in response to news from Asia, the chances of a «crypto winter» were estimated at 30%. The recovery above $93,000 helped improve market sentiments.

Following the market crash on October 10-11, when liquidation volumes reached a record $19 billion, many began to discuss the onset of a «bear market.»

Previously, economist Timothy Peterson noted a concerning similarity between Bitcoin’s performance in the latter half of this year and the trends during the bear phase of the previous cycle.

The beginning of December posed difficulties for the crypto market. On Monday, prices plunged after comments from Strategy’s CEO, Phong Le, who suggested a potential sale of Bitcoins if the net asset value (mNAV) dropped below 1.

Subsequently, the company announced the establishment of a $1.4 billion reserve for «stable and continuous» dividend payments to shareholders. Some perceived this decision as a bearish signal.

However, the situation reversed on Tuesday, driven by two key factors:

Chris Beauchamp, the chief market analyst at investment platform IG, also pointed out in a comment to Bloomberg that another reason for the recovery was the increased risk appetite in the stock market. Futures for U.S. stocks were gradually rebounding as investors anticipated a rate cut by the Federal Reserve during its December 10 meeting.

According to expert Alex Kuptsikevich from FxPro, these developments created «a series of vital signs of an emerging upward trend.» However, caution remains prevalent.

«We do not see a significant influx of buyers on the bullish side. Sentiments are still fragile,» emphasized Sean McNulty, head of the derivatives department at FalconX.

He noted the capital movement within the spot Bitcoin ETF segment, which attracted $59 million in the latest trading session. McNulty described this sum as «weak.»

«This recovery is nothing more than a technical bounce. However, Bitcoin may regain some momentum. Now is an appropriate time for those who have not yet initiated positions to consider entering the market,» added Melvin Dan, CEO of QCP Group.

At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading at approximately $93,400.

Bloomberg also reported that in 2025, the volume of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the digital asset sector reached a record $8.6 billion, exceeding the total amount of deals over the previous four years combined.

«Major crypto companies have become much more active in the acquisition space. Lower rates, regulatory clarity, and a bullish market at the beginning of the year have switched them to aggressive growth mode,» commented PitchBook analyst Ben Ricchio.

The primary thrust was provided by transactions involving cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase and Kraken, as well as the blockchain company Ripple Labs. However, the peak of this activity coincided with the lead-up to the October crash that devastated the market and wiped out more than $1 trillion in capital.

Among the key acquisitions of the year:

These transactions allowed 2025 to surpass the previous industry record set in 2021 ($4.6 billion). According to PitchBook, Coinbase stands out as the leader in M&A activity. Since 2020, the platform has participated in 24 deals, eight of which occurred in the last 12 months.

The year 2025 also set a record for the number of deals — 133 compared to 107 in 2022.

The boom was supported by the policies of former President Donald Trump’s administration, which stimulated overall euphoria and rising prices. In October, Bitcoin reached a historical peak above $126,000, after which it faced a significant decline.

Since October, market sentiments have shifted. The bearish trend has put considerable pressure on public companies in the sector. Coinbase lost one-fifth of its market value in the current quarter, while shares of the Trump family’s associated mining firm, American Bitcoin, plummeted by 70%.

«We will have to see how deal activity and valuations change in the coming months if prices of crypto assets remain under pressure. We are already hearing about the cancellation of some agreements due to market uncertainty,» summarized the specialists from Architect.

Let us remind you that Grayscale analysts have suggested the possibility of Bitcoin increasing in value despite the four-year cycles.