Будущее финансов: перп-DEX изменят правила игры для акций к 2026 году Translation: The future of finance: perp-DEX will change the game for stocks by 2026

By the end of 2026, pricing for the largest American stocks is expected to shift from traditional exchanges to the on-chain environment: the market will begin to rely not on the Nasdaq, but on the charts of perpetual contracts. This viewpoint was expressed by former BiMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.

The expert highlighted three primary factors driving this tectonic shift:

This forecast clarifies how perpetual contracts for stocks (perps) are already gaining significant traction in the market, providing a more efficient model for traders.

This relatively new financial instrument is showcasing substantial trading volumes, underscoring its demand.

As an example, Hayes mentions the launch of a perpetual contract for the Nasdaq 100 index on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. This instrument was developed using the permissionless protocol HIP-3, with daily trading volume already exceeding $100 million.

In the expert’s opinion, by the end of next year, all major centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX) will offer similar products. He argues that this will fundamentally alter the landscape of derivative markets. The success of such derivatives is rooted in their fundamental advantages for retail traders.

The value of this new product lies in its focus on retail investors. Arthur Hayes asserts that the success of perpetual contracts stems from addressing two crucial challenges for traders: liquidity and leverage.

As perps lack an expiration date, all liquidity «concentrates in a single instrument.» This sets them apart from traditional futures, where liquidity is dispersed across a range of contracts with various expiration dates, causing market fragmentation.

Cryptocurrency exchanges can offer significantly higher leverage (for example, up to 100x) compared to traditional financial platforms. This is made possible by a different margin management system used in the digital assets industry.

The main distinction lies in the format of the instruments themselves. Cryptocurrencies are «bearer assets,» meaning direct control by the owner and the absence of intermediaries who could enforce debt collection.

Unlike conventional markets, where financial intermediaries like banks are obligated to enforce court decisions regarding overdue debts, crypto exchanges lack this capability.

In traditional finance, a system of guaranteed settlements operates: clearing houses must possess substantial capital and have the right to pursue bankrupt traders through the courts. This model mitigates risks for participants but simultaneously limits the size of available leverage.

On cryptocurrency exchanges, a system of socialized losses is utilized, where a trader’s maximum losses are confined to the amount of initial margin. According to Hayes, this is a conscious compromise: participants are willing to accept the risk of partial profit forfeiture during periods of high volatility in exchange for the opportunity to work with greater leverage.

This approach is precisely what makes derivatives in the crypto market accessible to a broad audience globally.

Hayes believes that political shifts in the United States are easing regulatory barriers that previously hindered the integration of new technologies into the traditional financial system.

He anticipates that Donald Trump’s administration will create conditions for direct competition between crypto projects and TradFi giants. The expert asserts that this development is connected to the personal experience of the American president: in light of his family’s «debanking» incidents, he seeks to leverage cryptocurrencies as a tool to pressure a system that has attempted to constrain him.

Hayes predicts that a favorable climate will persist at least until the end of the presidential term in 2029.

The U.S. political course effectively sends a signal to regulators in other countries to implement similar measures, he noted. As an example, he cited the Singapore Exchange (SGX), which, according to his scenario, launched similar products immediately after the new Washington administration deemed cryptocurrencies acceptable elements of the financial market.

To sum up, Arthur Hayes returned to his key thesis: the future of financial markets is tied to more flexible, accessible, and efficient instruments like perpetual contracts.

He believes that in the near future, a time will come when financial media will start using the ticker of the perpetual contract for the S&P 500 as the primary price reference instead of quotes from CME Globex. This will signify a shift in paradigm — a definitive relocation of the financial center from Wall Street to the on-chain environment.

It is worth noting that Hayes is convinced that the traditional four-year cycle of the cryptocurrency market is no longer relevant.