Аналитик предостерегает о начале затяжного медвежьего рынка при падении биткоина ниже $80 000 Translation: Analyst warns of the start of a prolonged bear market if Bitcoin falls below $80,000.

The analyst known as Crypto Dan believes that if the price of the leading cryptocurrency falls below $80,000, the risk of entering a prolonged decline will significantly increase.

He noted the capitulation of short-term holders and a shift in market sentiment from positive to negative. According to him, the current activity resembles local lows observed during previous corrections within the ongoing bullish phase.

Based on the SOPR metric, the analyst identified two potential scenarios:

Crypto Dan advised to consider both possibilities. In the short term, he anticipates a rebound in prices.

However, he considers a 70% drop from the all-time high, characteristic of past bearish phases, to be unlikely.

The current decline in the digital gold price is primarily driven by capital outflows from crypto funds and the unwinding of treasury strategies, rather than merely a deterioration in market sentiment, asserts Greg Chipolaro, head of research at NYDIG.

The expert emphasized that the factors that fueled the rise of the leading cryptocurrency in October are now working in reverse. Previously, significant inflows into ETFs and the demand for digital assets from corporate treasuries (DAT) played a key role.

The situation changed in early October after major liquidations. Inflows into exchange-traded funds turned into outflows, premiums on stocks of bitcoin-holding companies fell, and the supply of stablecoins began to decrease. Chipolaro referred to this as «classic signs» of a loss of momentum and a withdrawal of liquidity from the system.

Once this cycle is disrupted, the market follows a predictable pattern: liquidity contracts, and previous positive narratives fail to convert into real financial flows.

Spot ETFs based on digital gold, which had been the main success of the current cycle, have become a restraining factor. Additionally, the dynamics of the asset are influenced by global liquidity changes and macroeconomic news.

During downturns, the dominance of the leading cryptocurrency usually increases. Speculative capital moves out of altcoins and reverts to the most liquid and established asset in the ecosystem. At the beginning of November, the dominance metric exceeded 60%, but as of writing, it has adjusted to 58.4%.

The premiums on DAT stocks compared to NAV have narrowed across the market spectrum. At the same time, for the first time in several months, the supply of stablecoins has decreased, indicating that investors are withdrawing funds.

Despite the shift in trend, the corporate holders of bitcoin are not currently showing signs of financial stress. The level of leverage remains moderate, and interest obligations are manageable. Many entities allow issuers to suspend dividend payments if necessary.

Chipolaro believes that the long-term outlook for digital gold remains relevant. Institutional adoption continues, and the asset retains its status as a «neutral instrument.» However, in the short term, market dynamics are largely determined by capital flows and leverage levels.

The analyst advised investors to consider that further movements in the sector may be uneven and emotionally charged, with sharp price fluctuations.

A decrease in open interest (OI) in bitcoin derivatives may signal a price bottom being reached and a potential market reversal. This was noted by the analyst known as Darkfost.

According to the expert, the market has experienced the sharpest 30-day drop in OI of the current cycle, with a decline of about 1.3 million BTC. At the time of writing, the asset was trading around $85,900, according to CoinGecko.

The recent price decline has triggered a cascade of liquidations. Traders are being forced to rethink their strategies or double down on their positions, yet the overall trend indicates a withdrawal from futures trading to reduce risks.

«Historically, such ‘liquidation’ phases have been necessary for forming a solid bottom and preparing the ground for a new bullish trend. Deleveraging, forced closure of overly optimistic positions, and the exit of speculators help balance the market,» noted Darkfost.

He emphasized that similar rapid reductions in open interest were observed during the bearish market of 2022.

Over the past month, the price of bitcoin has dropped by 23%. The decline from the all-time high of $126,000 reached in early October has exceeded 31.5%.

Analyst and founder of MN Trading Michael van de Poppe called the upcoming week crucial for digital gold. He stated that a return to the range of $90,000 to $96,000 would significantly increase the chances of setting new price records.

«Fear and panic have reached a peak in recent days. These are the best opportunities in the market,» added the trader.

It is worth noting that in November, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan claimed that bitcoin is close to the bottom, although a temporary dip to around $70,000 is possible.