Headline: Analysts Warn of Bear Market Confirmation as Bitcoin Tests Key Price Levels Translation: Analysts Warn of Bear Market Confirmation as Bitcoin Tests Key Price Levels

The risk of the market shifting to a bearish trend will emerge if the price of the leading cryptocurrency settles below critical on-chain indicators, according to analysts from Glassnode.

Currently, Bitcoin is testing the average entry price of active investors at $88,600. A breakthrough of this level, alongside the next pivotal figure — the market’s average of $82,000 — would serve as the first significant indication of a bearish trend since May 2022.

Previously, prices had already dipped below the break-even point for short-term holders ($109,800), which has put them under pressure. Now, the $95,000-97,000 range serves as a crucial level of resistance.

Experts have pointed out other negative aspects:

At the time of writing, digital gold is trading around $91,900.

Analysts from CryptoQuant noted that the market conditions for Bitcoin have become the «most bearish» since the beginning of the bullish cycle in January 2023. They believe the current correction is distinct from past ones, as the price has breached a significant technical level.

The key signal was the breach of the 365-day moving average (MA). In 2022, falling below this indicator confirmed the onset of a prolonged bear market. In the current cycle, the price has yet to drop below this benchmark.

Among the other negative factors, analysts highlighted:

The demand from publicly traded companies, which had been a significant growth driver, has nearly ceased. Over recent months, their market capitalization has plummeted by 70-90% and has fallen below the value of their Bitcoin reserves.

Treasury companies are facing challenges in attracting new capital for cryptocurrency purchases. Activity from Strategy has also noticeably declined.

Experts suggest that bullish phases depend not on halving events or timeframes, but rather on waves of increasing demand. Most of the current uplift has likely already transpired.

The catalysts that drove prices to $100,000 and $120,000 in 2024-2025 have been exhausted. The emergence of new powerful drivers, such as the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S., seems unlikely, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have already been priced in.

The present situation does not imply an abrupt collapse, analysts emphasized. Bitcoin’s price has corrected by 28% and found support in the $90,000-92,000 range. However, the level of the 365-day MA ($102,600) now acts as a strong resistance.

It is worth recalling that in November, Glassnode analysts stated that for the bulls to halt the bearish trend, they must swiftly push the price of the leading cryptocurrency back to a level where 75% of coins are in profit — a historical requirement to reverse the trend.