Прогнозы QCP: Биткоин получит поддержку, несмотря на неопределенности бюджета Translation: QCPs Forecast: Bitcoin Will Gain Support Despite Budget Uncertainties

The price of the first cryptocurrency reacted to news regarding the potential end of the government shutdown in the United States. During the American trading session, it saw a decrease but settled around the ~$104,000 mark in Asia, as noted by analysts from QCP Capital.

The U.S. Senate approved a temporary budget through January 30. This move is expected to prevent disruptions in government operations during the holiday season. The bill will now be reviewed by the House of Representatives before being signed by the president.

Experts described the decision as akin to «kicking the can down the road.» While it alleviates immediate risks, it does not address underlying structural issues. According to QCP, a new crisis could emerge at the beginning of next year.

Data from Polymarket indicates that the probability of the shutdown ending between November 12 and 15 is 98%.

Due to the shutdown, official statistics are not being released, leading the market to rely on private indicators. According to QCP, the NFIB small business optimism index has indicated a decline in sentiment. Companies are reporting slowing sales and hiring challenges, which aligns with data from ADP showing a weakening labor market.

Analysts forecast that in the short term, the cryptocurrency sector will continue to be influenced by budget uncertainty, credit volatility, and weak economic data. However, by the end of the year, digital gold and other risk assets may receive support. This could be driven by a potential interest rate cut from the Fed and stable corporate earnings.

QCP maintains a positive outlook for 2026, expecting monetary and fiscal policy to contribute to economic growth.

At the beginning of November, one of the largest outflows of Bitcoin from the Binance exchange in 2025 was recorded. Analysts at XWIN Research believe this indicates a shift in investor sentiment, preparing for a new market movement.

Experts remind us that significant outflows of coins from trading platforms historically indicate accumulation rather than panic selling. Investors are moving assets to cold wallets for long-term storage.

The current situation aligns with the end of a consolidation phase at the $103,000 level, suggesting that whales and institutional investors are gearing up for the next macroeconomic move.

Partially, this activity may be linked to internal wallet restructuring at Binance. Major exchanges frequently redistribute funds, which is reflected in the data. However, on-chain analysis shows that most transactions are user withdrawals rather than technical movements.

During the same period, there was an uptick in activity on OTC platforms. This serves as another indirect indication that institutional investors are engaging in private deals.

Analysts view the surge in withdrawals as a bullish signal. A reduction in Bitcoin supply on exchanges diminishes selling pressure. Coupled with an influx of stablecoins to major platforms, this points to hidden accumulation of assets. Historically, such trends have preceded price recoveries.

An analyst known as DaanCrypto pointed out that on shorter timeframes, Bitcoin displays an upward trend. However, for this to continue, the price must breach the $107,000 zone. He noted that this would be the main condition for a bullish reversal.

The expert also highlighted macroeconomic factors, stating that the stock market is nearing historical highs, and an improvement in liquidity is expected due to the Fed’s plans to cease quantitative tightening and reduce interest rates.

DaanCrypto identified whale selling linked to the four-year cycle as a primary constraint. He believes this pressure has hindered the segment in recent weeks.

The trader emphasized that the current market uncertainty arises from conflicting signals. The daily structure remains bearish, while the weekly and monthly trends are still bullish. He advised traders to focus on global support and resistance levels.

Conversely, analyst CryptoTony holds a different perspective. He also anticipates a rise to the $107,400 level but sees this area as «ideal for short positions.»

Interestingly, in November, Santiment specialists analyzed the four-year correlation gap between Bitcoin’s price and the stock market, concluding that the coin is undervalued.