Анализ MVRV сигнализирует о возможном дне биткоина в районе $100 000 Translation: Analysis of MVRV signals a potential bottom for Bitcoin around $100,000

The fundamental metrics of Bitcoin remain stable despite the prevailing panic in the market. A key indicator, the MVRV ratio, has reached its lowest level since April, standing at 1.8, as reported by contributors from CryptoQuant at XWIN Research.

«This suggests that the market value is approaching the average price paid by investors, indicating a potential accumulation zone,» analysts noted.

A decline in the MVRV to the 1.8–2 range typically signifies either a market bottom or an early recovery phase. Realized profits and losses are balancing out, hinting at the conclusion of profit-taking, XWIN Research added.

As a reference point, the researchers identified a price range of $99,000 to $101,000.

They believe that the recent liquidations are primarily driven by long positions taken with «excessive» leverage. Furthermore, long-term holders continue to take profits, while short-term holders are incurring losses.

Exchange reserves continue to decrease, indicating that coins are being moved to personal wallets for storage rather than being sold. This behavior from market participants historically aligns with stabilization phases.

The activity of stablecoins also reflects a «defensive position.» The supply of USDT remains high at $183 billion, and the USDC supply consistently hovers around $75 billion, supported by demand for institutional payments.

«Liquidity is currently on the sidelines, awaiting clarity from upcoming macroeconomic indicators in the U.S., such as employment and trade data. Overall, on-chain signals suggest a transitional phase for the market rather than its collapse. Despite fear-driven sell-offs and increased volatility, realized losses remain moderate, indicating a rational recalibration rather than a capitulation,» the analysts summarized.

At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading at approximately $101,700, having lost 3% over the past day.

It is worth noting that Vinit Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, has suggested that Bitcoin could drop by as much as 70%.