Аналитик: Биткоин на пороге новых вызовов в связи с изменениями рынка акций Translation: Analyst: Bitcoin on the Brink of New Challenges Due to Stock Market Changes

The first cryptocurrency and the S&P 500 index are currently in the «late stage of a bullish phase,» according to analyst Axel Adler Jr.

His analysis indicates that the market continues to embrace risk, with the annual return of the S&P 500 reaching +13%.

A correlation of 0.26 exists between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index, suggesting a weak but positive relationship: the leading cryptocurrency often mirrors the performance of the stock market, though it is not entirely dependent on it.

Adler emphasized that the S&P 500 reacts sensitively to macroeconomic and political news, thus any cooling off could quickly impact the price of the leading cryptocurrency.

The expert believes that by the fourth quarter of 2025, attention will shift toward corporate earnings. After two consecutive years of growth, the market will begin to assess actual results.

Currently, the third-quarter earnings season is underway. Out of 58 companies that have reported so far, all have exceeded expectations. The anticipated profit growth has risen from 7% to 8%. Adler Jr. noted that this scenario is typical for the final stage of a bullish phase.

In the past 30 days, major holders of the leading cryptocurrency transferred assets totaling $5.56 billion to the Binance exchange, as reported by CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn.

The expert tracked a metric that considers transactions exceeding 1,000 BTC, indicating an influx of assets from whales that could influence the price of digital gold.

A notable surge in this metric occurred on October 21, when Bitcoin worth $1.07 billion flowed into the exchange. The analyst highlighted several significant transactions:

Against the backdrop of these transfers, Bitcoin’s price rose from $108,000 to $113,000 before correcting back down to $108,000.

Glassnode analysts reported a decrease in speculative activity in the market. According to their data, recent cryptocurrency buyers are experiencing «financial stress,» a sign of market cooling.

Experts reference the unrealized profit and loss metric of short-term holders, with current values indicating increasing pressure on this group of investors.

Glassnode pointed out that historically, periods of «pain» for speculators have coincided with the formation of healthier market conditions. They concluded that reducing excessive speculation could lead to price stabilization.

Additionally, contributors from ShayanMarkets at CryptoQuant reported that the MVRV ratio for the leading cryptocurrency has dropped below its 365-day simple moving average, indicating a local minimum.