Угроза для банков США: GENIUS Act может привести к $6,6 трлн утечке депозитов Headline: Threat to US Banks: GENIUS Act Could Trigger $6.6 Trillion Deposit Exodus

The signed GENIUS Act, passed in July, is expected to trigger a significant migration of deposits from traditional banks to more lucrative stablecoins. This perspective was shared by Tashar Jain, co-founder of Multicoin Capital.

“The legislation will end the practice of financial institutions offering minimal interest rates to retail depositors while maintaining their profits,” he noted.

According to Patrick Collison, CEO of Stripe, the average interest rate for savings accounts in the U.S. is 0.40%, compared to 0.25% in Europe.

In contrast, stablecoin rates for USDT from Tether and USDC from Circle on the Aave platform reach 4.03% and 3.85%, respectively.

Jain believes that upon the finalization of the bill, tech giants like Meta, Google, and Apple will enter the competitive landscape for deposits. He explained that these companies would be able to offer higher returns on “stablecoins” along with a superior user experience for instant transactions and round-the-clock payments compared to traditional banks.

The Multicoin Capital co-founder also emphasized that lending groups are already attempting to shield themselves from the repercussions of the GENIUS Act. He pointed out an official appeal from major banking associations in the U.S. to Congress made in August.

The appeal highlighted a significant oversight in the bill’s current draft: the direct prohibition on interest payments by stablecoin issuers does not extend to cryptocurrency exchanges and their affiliated companies. This creates a loophole to circumvent the legislation through partnership programs where platforms offer rewards to holders of “stablecoins”.

Banking groups are concerned that the widespread adoption of high-yielding stablecoins may undermine the entire system that relies on attracting deposits through high-yield savings products to secure the granting of loans.

Referring to an April report from the U.S. Treasury, the Bank Policy Institute warned of the risks of a $6.6 trillion deposit outflow. The authors indicated that this could increase borrowing costs for businesses and the general population.

“A contraction in credit supply will lead to higher interest rates on loans, a reduction in lending volumes, and an increased financial burden on both businesses and households,” the appeal stated.

Bankers are advocating for regulations that align with standards for traditional financial institutions, noting the need for a level playing field.

The rising popularity of “stablecoins” could result in a massive withdrawal of deposits from the banking systems of emerging economies, analysts from Standard Chartered have stated, as reported by CoinDesk.

Experts estimate that over the next three years, the amount of funds redirected from traditional instruments will exceed $1 trillion.

They noted that the adoption of stablecoins is most active in countries with volatile national currencies, including Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Locals view “stablecoins” as a protective asset.

“Indeed, future growth in the use of stablecoins for savings will expand from a small number of wallets with large balances to a vast array of wallets with relatively modest asset volumes. In the long term, these investments will become substantial; growth will likely occur in developing markets where the demand for a liquid, around-the-clock, reliable alternative to local banks is higher,” analysts emphasized.

Standard Chartered has predicted that the global market for dollar-pegged coins could reach $2 trillion by 2028, with two-thirds of the demand coming from emerging markets, the analysts concluded.

On September 29, the market capitalization of the stablecoin sector exceeded $300 billion for the first time in history. At the time of writing, the figure stands at $302.4 billion. In the last quarter, the supply of these assets stated that by 2030, all fiat money will transform into “stablecoins.”