Секреты успеха биткоина: как IV квартал превращается в сезон ралли Translation: The Secrets of Bitcoins Success: How the Fourth Quarter Becomes Rally Season

The historical trends of Bitcoin reveal a pronounced seasonality, not only in October but throughout the entire fourth quarter. This insight was shared by contributors from CryptoQuant and the XWIN Research team.

While August and September often show negative or negligible returns (averaging -0.54% and -4.16%, respectively), the months of October (+29.9%), November (+37.5%), and December (+4.75%) consistently outperform them, as noted by analysts.

“The phenomenon known as Uptober is not an isolated event; it marks the onset of a structural rally at year-end, driven by macroeconomic, behavioral, and cyclical factors,” emphasized the XWIN Research team.

According to specialists, this perspective is supported by the MVRV indicator. From 2016 to 2025, the indicator hovered around 1.8 for most of the time, then spiked above 1.9 in October, approaching 2.0 by December. This indicates increasing investor profitability, reflecting market demand and confidence, the experts explained.

XWIN Research identified several factors that contribute to the market’s «strength» in the fourth quarter:

“Seasonal narratives like Uptober become self-fulfilling, driving demand and pushing prices higher. Consequently, October is not merely a robust month but a catalyst for a broader bullish phase in Q4, which often culminates in a dramatic rally by year-end,” analysts concluded.

It’s worth noting that on September 30, the U.S. government temporarily suspended operations for the first time since 2018, causing the original cryptocurrency to rise above $116,000.