Риски криптовалютного рынка возрастают на фоне вероятного шатдауна правительства США Headline: Cryptocurrency Market Faces Rising Risks Amid Potential U.S. Government Shutdown

The likelihood of a government shutdown in the United States starting from October 1 has risen to 84%, according to Polymarket. Analysts have warned that the threat of a shutdown poses risks for the cryptocurrency market.

«A federal government shutdown isn’t merely political maneuvering in Washington. It generates uncertainty that ripples through global markets, and cryptocurrencies also feel this impact,» noted AvaTrade’s chief market analyst, Kate Leeman, in a comment to DL News.

The potential shutdown stems from a lack of budget agreement. Democrats are advocating for increased healthcare funding, while Republicans are opposing it and suggesting a temporary budget extension until November 21, according to Bloomberg.

Previously, former President Donald Trump forecasted a significant chance of a government work halt.

«We will continue negotiations with the Democrats, but I believe the country may face a temporary shutdown of government functions,» he stated.

According to Reuters, U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance noted that such an outcome is «inevitable.»

In the event of a shutdown, the government will cease publishing economic data on employment and inflation. Leeman stated that without these signals, it will become «more challenging to gauge the economy and predict the next steps of the Federal Reserve.»

The Fed is considering a second interest rate cut in October. Typically, easing monetary policy is seen as a bullish factor for the crypto market.

«A government shutdown will hinder critical progress in crypto policy,» also reported Jessica Martinez from the Blockchain Association in her conversation with CoinDesk.

Currently, the CLARITY Act is under government review—a bill that establishes a regulatory framework for the entire cryptocurrency sector. On July 18, it was approved by the U.S. Congress. Republicans aimed to pass the initiative by the end of September, but a shutdown will delay this timeline.

A government shutdown may also slow processes at the SEC, which is handling applications for spot crypto ETFs and developing rules for the crypto market.

«The combination of decreased information flow and slowed oversight typically unsettles risk markets. Cryptocurrencies, which are already sensitive to market sentiment, could exhibit even sharper fluctuations,» stated Leeman.

Investor Ted Pillows referenced historical data, noting that the S&P 500 and the crypto market usually decline ahead of a U.S. government shutdown.

«I believe it could lead to significant volatility this week,» he emphasized.

Researcher under the pseudonym Zac agreed with this perspective, describing the shutdown as «political theater with short-term costs but no long-term damage to the markets.»

Web3 researcher Vladimir Menaskop suggested examining the situation through three lenses: bureaucratic, political, and economic.

He argued that while bureaucratic delays and political disarray can provoke nervous reactions among speculators, the key to understanding the outlook lies within a deeper economic context.

From this perspective, the internal conflicts within the government are merely disputes among groups «existing at the expense of the rest of society,» which are of little concern to the millions engaged in real production and exchange. For them, a shutdown may even be a positive event, alleviating pressure on the economy and providing more opportunities for capital preservation.

«If the government suddenly disappears, it means life will be easier for the economy, or essentially eight billion people, as they won’t be hindered anymore. And, honestly, this is the ‘blue dream’ of all advocates for freedom and the Austrian School of Economics. So far, only Milei is trying to bring this to life in Argentina,» the expert explained.

The possible government shutdown in 2025 would not be the first that the crypto market has experienced. In October 2013, it lasted for 16 days, during which Bitcoin’s price rose by 14% from $132 to $151.

However, the upward trend of the leading cryptocurrency during such periods is not a rule. The longest shutdown occurred in December 2018 and lasted 35 days, during which the price of digital gold fell by 6%, from $3802 to $3575.

Head of research at CryptoQuant Julio Moreno noted that during the shutdowns in 2013 and 2018, Bitcoin was in «completely different markets.»

«Demand for the asset was surging as it was entering the final stage of a bull cycle [in 2013],» he commented to Decrypt, adding that by the time of the 2018 shutdown, demand for cryptocurrency was declining amidst a bear market.

In his view, Bitcoin currently resembles its 2013 state more than its 2018 one.

As of this writing, digital gold is trading around $113,400, having increased by 1.2% over the past 24 hours.

It is worth noting that Glassnode experts detected the capitulation of Bitcoin speculators, leading market participants to speculate that the correction is nearing its end.